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From: "ztrader" <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
Let's think about this a bit. I can flip a coin and make predictions.
If you allow me to select *past* predictions I have made, I can make it
look like I get 90% right. ...The posts stating "there, see, I made *a* past
prediction correctly" are statistical nonsense. Let's try to think just a
bit statistically, please.
Time and again you are trying to inject scientific (or even common sense)
thinking into trading. That would leave no place to the poetry of trading.
In my 25+ years of trading it was a period when I was trading absolute highs
and lows. I thought I was a genius. (Lately, I found out that in that time I
was the only one retail customer in that absolutely illiquid instrument).
You are going to tell me that buying extreems is statisticaly unlikely? I am
so proud of myself that I will tell about it to my children and
grandchildren like a story of Odyssey.
I am absolutely sure that when Sun crosses the Moon there was a top in some
market during the past century (maybe several of tops). And if some one
predict that top let him be proud for the rest of his life as I am proud of
buying the absolute bottoms...
But there is a crucial role of predictions in the life of the trader. Trader
has to act (buy, sell). Most traders are trying to be rational, meaning that
they have to have some rational for their decision. Whatever that is
(Elliot, Gann, Stars, Secret Discovery, etc). So when his rational says buy,
he buys (hopfully). Is trader sucess depends on quality of his "prediction"?
No. The only one things that counts "how much money you make when you are
right, and how much you did not loose when you are rong".
Trader is not a scienist of the market, he is a soldier. Let him to be a
poet too.
Poetical Alex.
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