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Re: [RT] correlation vs causation



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bwahahaha.. now that guy knows his stuff!!   I remember him on cnbc saying 
things like, "we expect a 20% chance of a move down to the blah blah mark 
over the next few weeks and a 30% chance of a move up to blah blah but only 
if blah blah is taken out and if it is, that 30% could be moved to as much 
as 60% if new highs are set in the monthly spoos and that could only happen 
if the markets move in some direction and we think that is a near 90% 
possibility so we are recommending to our clients that they stay on the 
sidelines until we have conformation that Elvis is indeed, alive". :)))

Bob


At 01:36 PM 5/22/2001 -0400, you wrote:
>Not to mention that if you look at one of Bob's charts from AsstroTrader,
>there are lines ALL OVER THE SCREEN!!!.  No matter where price reverses,
>there is going to be a line close enough for someone to say "Yep!  Asstro
>works!".  Reminds me of my days as a subscriber to Jerry Favors.  His
>monthly commentary would always include a list of turning points which would
>look something like this:
>
>Using Magic Indicator #1 we project possible turning points on the following
>dates +/- 1 day:
>May 3
>May 6
>May 10
>May 13
>May 19
>May 22
>May 25
>May 29
>
>Using Occult Indicator #2 we project possible turning points on the
>following dates +/- 2 days:
>May 5
>May 15
>May 20
>May 27
>May 31
>
>
>Of course this was always preceded by language to the effect of: "Last month
>we told you to look for a turning point in the April 17 timeframe and the
>actual turning point was April 18, within one day of our projection."
>
>
>Kent
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 12:56 PM
>Subject: Re: [RT] correlation vs causation
>
>
>Z:
>
>Good stuff.  Going back over history and examining thousands of  events that
>one might study for evidence of coorelation; there will
>always be some phenenemon that stand out as appearing to be
>causal.  Statistically there is going to be SOME event that can be found; as
>a matter of chance.  The SuperBowl indicator comes to mind.
>
>Chas
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
>To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 12:18 PM
>Subject: Re: [RT] correlation vs causation
>
>
> >On Tuesday, May 22, 2001, 6:14:06 AM, Ketayun wrote:
> >
> >K> I do find that astro-marketologists often confuse correlation with
> >K> causation.
> >
> >Agreed.
> >
> >K> I don't see why it matters which came first, the value of learning this
> >K> or any science is the ability to use the known to prepare for the
> >K> unknown.
> >
> >True, but first I'd like to see some statistically significant
> >correlation. This has been asked for *many* times for *specific*
> >'predictions' mentioned on this list, but is still lacking. All we
> >ever get is a reference to some old work on a topic that has nothing
> >to do with the specific 'prediction' in an RT post. The only good
> >astro/stat work has been done by a non-astro person, and for the moon
> >only.
> >
> >Once we have a significant correlation, I don't care if it's caused by
> >green extraterrestrials with 13 eyes [has to be a fibo, right?], I'll
> >use it too. :-)
> >
> >ztrader
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
>
>
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