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Re: [RT] correlation vs causation



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Not to mention that if you look at one of Bob's charts from AsstroTrader,
there are lines ALL OVER THE SCREEN!!!.  No matter where price reverses,
there is going to be a line close enough for someone to say "Yep!  Asstro
works!".  Reminds me of my days as a subscriber to Jerry Favors.  His
monthly commentary would always include a list of turning points which would
look something like this:

Using Magic Indicator #1 we project possible turning points on the following
dates +/- 1 day:
May 3
May 6
May 10
May 13
May 19
May 22
May 25
May 29

Using Occult Indicator #2 we project possible turning points on the
following dates +/- 2 days:
May 5
May 15
May 20
May 27
May 31


Of course this was always preceded by language to the effect of: "Last month
we told you to look for a turning point in the April 17 timeframe and the
actual turning point was April 18, within one day of our projection."


Kent


----- Original Message -----
From: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 12:56 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] correlation vs causation


Z:

Good stuff.  Going back over history and examining thousands of  events that
one might study for evidence of coorelation; there will
always be some phenenemon that stand out as appearing to be
causal.  Statistically there is going to be SOME event that can be found; as
a matter of chance.  The SuperBowl indicator comes to mind.

Chas

-----Original Message-----
From: ztrader <ztrader@xxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, May 22, 2001 12:18 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] correlation vs causation


>On Tuesday, May 22, 2001, 6:14:06 AM, Ketayun wrote:
>
>K> I do find that astro-marketologists often confuse correlation with
>K> causation.
>
>Agreed.
>
>K> I don't see why it matters which came first, the value of learning this
>K> or any science is the ability to use the known to prepare for the
>K> unknown.
>
>True, but first I'd like to see some statistically significant
>correlation. This has been asked for *many* times for *specific*
>'predictions' mentioned on this list, but is still lacking. All we
>ever get is a reference to some old work on a topic that has nothing
>to do with the specific 'prediction' in an RT post. The only good
>astro/stat work has been done by a non-astro person, and for the moon
>only.
>
>Once we have a significant correlation, I don't care if it's caused by
>green extraterrestrials with 13 eyes [has to be a fibo, right?], I'll
>use it too. :-)
>
>ztrader
>
>
>
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