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I have followed this thread and feel that there has been a lot of good advice
given and some that is erroneous, IMHO. To go to a casino is not a gamble if
you are knowledgeable, it is a profession. There is a difference between odds
and probability. Each time you roll the dice the odds are exactly the same for
each combination, but after each roll of the dice the probability of a given
number to come up changes. Is playing blackjack a gamble or a profession? If
the edge was with the house, then why have they banned professional blackjack
players. There are those that trade stock and futures based upon fundamentals
and others that use technical analysis. Both are correct if the party using
them is profitable. Neither is correct if you are losing money. Every system
has an optimum point of entry and one for exit. If it doesn't, it should have.
The system I have gives a specific entry price, 3 different exit prices and a
specific stop. Others use overbought, oversold, some use the relationship of
various planets, some use moving averages and on and on and on. It is up to the
party that wants to become a trader to find that system which suits his
personality the best. As for day trading, technical analysis seems to be the
most useful as fundamentals don't change every five minutes. As for the hours
to trade. A floor trader should make his biggest profits during the first and
last half hours of the trading day. Therefor an upstairs trader should trade
the balance of the day unless liquidating an existing position and leave those
two time periods to others. Trend is a tricky question. I have stated this
many times. It is the trader that creates the trend when he selects the time
frame that he is going to trade and the cycle upon which the trade is based.
These are usually determined by risk, money management, volatility and timing.
There are many different ways to determine value areas. One that is used in many
instances for futures is called the bond numbers. These are derived from the
previous days high, low and close. This system works to offer support and
resistance lines that are based upon Yesterdays range and close. There is a
system which was developed by J.Peter Steidlmayer that also gives a charted
update of value areas based upon the trades at various prices. It has been very
successful for him, but I didn't find anyone else that could use the system with
a great deal of success. I used it for a while with a moderate degree of
success, but it wasn't what I was looking for as an end product. The questions
you ask are good, but the answers will vary for each individual trader. It is
up to the individual to seek out what suits him/her. to filter through the
available information and find what suits there purported trading style. I wish
you luck on your quest. Ira
BobR wrote:
> Ridicule has its place and no offense is taken, I have received valuable
> insights from it in the past. Let me rephrase the question disregarding the
> notion of trend or lack of in assuming an entry. Specifically for those who
> daytrade futures, what setups and triggers have you found to make successful
> entries early in the day, i.e. those that led to permit a profitable exit.
> Candlesticks were mentioned as one. But what "filters" do you look for to
> enable a trade and what do you look for to abort a setup?
>
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