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Ztrader:
With respect to the statistics of Fibonacci patterns
(Golden Triangle if you like), the only statistics that I am aware of are those
published by Pesavento for "ideal" Gartley and Butterfly patterns. These
are reported to have 80% reversal statistics.
Bill
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<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
ztrader
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 6:41
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] GOLDEN TRIANGLES
On Tuesday, May 01, 2001, 11:01:07 PM, Norman Winski
wrote:Thanks for the detailed reply. As a lowly 'system' person,
though, itis a bit confusing.NW> Moon 180 Uranus @
1:01 PM, May 1, 01 -NW> Given that the Moon start's to
influence the market one hourNW> ahead of an exact event, that is when
I start looking for aNW> pattern to trade. The ideal is a bell shape
curve.'Influence' sounds as though it could be anything - up, down,
flat,fast, slow, gap, etc. Is there any narrowing of the 'influence"'
tospecific things? Are you saying that this 'influence' produces
thecurve? Why the bell?NW> Last week, I was
studying the market movement relative to theNW> Venus Retrograde
period, March 8 - April 20, got out my $5NW> calculator and noticed
that the legs were Fibonacci relationships.NW> May 1, I was
watching for the Moon 180 Uranus at 1:01 PM EDT andNW> noticed the same
type pattern. In both cases, the market returnedNW> to its starting
price for the first time since departing, near theNW> destination
time.I'm a tad confused as to the exact details, I'm afraid. What
event(s)define the start and end of the pattern?NW> It is
simply nothing less than amazing!Please excuse my jaded view of
amazing. It has been tempered bylooking at hundreds of statistically
insignificant things over theyears. My statistical amazement starts up
when it is rathersignificant, and is really apparent when we get to the 1%
range. :-)NW> The Venus Retro case was skewed two days early due to
theNW> Greenspan Fed rate cut announcement.There might be a
problem in getting good stats if we allow too
much'slop'.NW> A golden triangleIs this a
necessary part of the pattern?NW> Side 1 is to Side 2 as Side 2 is
to Side 3. The Venus RetrogradeNW> period shows two such Golden
Triangle. The May 1 Moon - UranusNW> case shows another. Please note on
the Venus Retrograde case howNW> it looks like the market did a last
minute hurry up spike on AprilCan this be checked with, say, 100 cases
to begin to get some stats?Can it be defined well enough to try this by
machine rather thaneyeball?NW> Generally, what I
repeatedly learn in studying these patterns isNW> that even when the
planetary cycles don't reveal the exact turningNW> points as I would
ideally like,Is there an estimate for how accurate they are? This is
startingtoward real stats.NW> they do offer valuable market
information either in time or price.Does this mean that we are taking
into account all the 'patterns' tellus or are there other
patterns?NW> You are probably asking, how one can make
any money with theseNW> patterns?Not necessarily. It might be
appropriate to just run stats to see ifit is statistically reliable. This
might be a better start than tryingto put it in a full
'system'.NW> Let me know what you think.I think
there is a chance we might bridge the gap. :-)NW>
Amazedly,NW> Norman Thankfully,
:-)ztraderTo
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