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Bill,
Cause and effect are not needed to
make money. The purpose of this discussion is not to make a breakthough in
Astrophysics. If I find a good correlation, I am going to exploit it to
make money until it stops working. On the other hand, a strong repititive
correlation between extra-terrrestrial bodies and human behavior may someday
lead to some scientific discoveries. Maybe I will leave some of my
money to a science foundation to research this.
Cheers,
Norman
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
wavemechanic
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, April 29, 2001 2:12
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Validity of orbital
element
Clyde:
You have put your finger on the misunderstanding
between the two "camps" in this debate, but given the number of posts on
this subject I think it is worth underlining.
Your correlation regarding use of the new moon for
timing might very well be quite significant in a statistical sense. As
you note, this correlation is strong "regardless of whether the moon itself is
influencing the markets." Exactly right. Observation of an
effect cannot by itself prove or disprove a causal relationship. No
matter how statistically significant the correlation is it cannot prove
causation. Cause and effect can only be established by a theory that
explains the observed correlation. So in a very real sense everybody is
right. At least in the case of the moon, as evidenced by your example,
there is a strong correlation between a body in outer space and
markets, and this correlation might very well be a valid basis for
trading purposes. However, absent a theoretical basis for
connecting outer space bodies with markets, there is no basis for
claiming a cause and effect relationship between them.
Bill
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 11:28
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Validity of orbital
element
Well it is nice to see someone post a
detailed set of math
concerning the planets and other bodies
(particularly the
moon) and claim that this set of math
proves that such
bodies cannot have any influence on our
markets.
I just want to post again a simple
graph that shows the
results of buying on some selected
number of days after
the new moon and selling 8 days
later.
To me it is amazing that we get such a
STRONG indication
that regardless of whether the moon
itself is influencing
the markets that the markets react
periodically in a
manner that is tied to the moon
cycle.
If you were to do this same study and
change the period
of time representing the moon cycle by
even 1/4 day the
whole thing "goes to hell". I ran
a test where I varied
the cycle in increments of
0.01 day and was amazed that
even a very minor miscalculation in
moon period would
destroy this relationship.
Actually, the above seems to me to more
concretely show
the influence is from the 'MOON EFFECT'
than from anything
else we can imagine.
Look at the graph -- choose the right
days and you will
make money, choose the wrong days and
you will lose.
How simple can you make it
??????
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A href="mailto:research@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=research@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>Research Dept.
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001
21:48
Subject: [RT] Validity of orbital
element
Hello Real Traders? ,I humbly submit
the following argument against planetary
influenceupon the earths financial markets. I can only comment
upon the earthsbecause I have not yet been privileged enough to trade
other planetaryTo unsubscribe from this
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