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Clyde:
You have put your finger on the misunderstanding
between the two "camps" in this debate, but given the number of posts on
this subject I think it is worth underlining.
Your correlation regarding use of the new moon for
timing might very well be quite significant in a statistical sense. As you
note, this correlation is strong "regardless of whether the moon itself is
influencing the markets." Exactly right. Observation of an
effect cannot by itself prove or disprove a causal relationship. No matter
how statistically significant the correlation is it cannot prove
causation. Cause and effect can only be established by a theory that
explains the observed correlation. So in a very real sense everybody is
right. At least in the case of the moon, as evidenced by your example,
there is a strong correlation between a body in outer space and
markets, and this correlation might very well be a valid basis for
trading purposes. However, absent a theoretical basis for connecting
outer space bodies with markets, there is no basis for claiming a
cause and effect relationship between them.
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde Lee
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 11:28
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Validity of orbital
element
Well it is nice to see someone post a
detailed set of math
concerning the planets and other bodies
(particularly the
moon) and claim that this set of math
proves that such
bodies cannot have any influence on our
markets.
I just want to post again a simple graph
that shows the
results of buying on some selected number
of days after
the new moon and selling 8 days
later.
To me it is amazing that we get such a
STRONG indication
that regardless of whether the moon
itself is influencing
the markets that the markets react
periodically in a
manner that is tied to the moon
cycle.
If you were to do this same study and
change the period
of time representing the moon cycle by
even 1/4 day the
whole thing "goes to hell". I ran a
test where I varied
the cycle in increments of
0.01 day and was amazed that
even a very minor miscalculation in moon
period would
destroy this relationship.
Actually, the above seems to me to more
concretely show
the influence is from the 'MOON EFFECT'
than from anything
else we can imagine.
Look at the graph -- choose the right
days and you will
make money, choose the wrong days and you
will lose.
How simple can you make it
??????
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=research@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:research@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Research Dept.
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001
21:48
Subject: [RT] Validity of orbital
element
Hello Real Traders? ,I humbly submit
the following argument against planetary influenceupon
the earths financial markets. I can only comment upon the
earthsbecause I have not yet been privileged enough to trade other
planetaryTo
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