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I would vote for ego as the culprit -- same thing that makes people
pick tops all the way up. One thing I would note -- if one looks at
log charts instead of linear, the rules holding up much better -- for
instance only this week did the NASDAQ pass even a 23.6 retracement
of the move since '74. A 61.8% retrace is all the way down at 315.
Another thing I have noticed is that commentators like to compare the
Nasdaq decline to the Dow in the 30s. Apples and oranges I think.
Had there been a Nasdaq going into the 30s, what are the odds of it
surviving? Not very good, I would think.
Chris
--- In realtraders@xxxx, Timothy Morge <tmorge@xxxx> wrote:
> Mr G and all RT'ers...
>
> Just a question I'd like to ask the list, in general...
>
> Gazing back at the posts over the past XX weeks or months [while we
were
> clearly in a down trend, bear mkt, whatever term you like...], I
see a
> tremendous amount of energy spent posting things like:
>
> I assure you the Nasdaq will rally XX percent after making a low
today...
>
> My work says today is the low of the move and the markets will now
rally XX...
>
> I see on my charts that the market[s] have reached their bottom and
should
> now test XXXXX on the upside within XX days...
>
> and on and on and on...
>
> Why is so much energy spent trying to pick a termination of a down
trend?
> Why aren't there posts extolling the virtues of selling every rally
while
> we are in this beautiful downtrend? Where are the charts that show
> tomorrow's potential sell area if we are lucky enough to get a
rally in price?
>
> Just an observation...Anyone like to reply or speculate?
>
> Best,
>
> Tim Morge
>
>
> At 11:52 AM 4/3/01 -0400, you wrote:
> >Been dissecting some canned trend related indicators for CSCO, and
come up
> >with some data :
> >
> >- Peak in Weekly ADX: CSCO @ $77, with ADX (14, wkly) at 49.27.
> >- MACD 12/26/9 last seen in positive territory: CSCO @ $64
> >- RSI (5) last seen over 70 (overbot): CSCO @ $42
> >- 200 day ema last touched on either side: CSCO @ $60
> >- 50 day ema last touched on either side: CSCO @ $50
> >- 20 day exponential moving average last touched on either side:
CSCO @ $40
> >- Any major moving average last touched on either side: the 20
day, with
> >CSCO @ $40.
> >
> >- Current Weekly ADX (14) : 47.41
> >- Current position of moving averages:
> > - 200 day simple $48.73
> > - 200 day expo $42.03
> > - 50 day expo $25.25
> > - 20 day expo $18.86
> >
> >- Current Stock price: $13.625
> >- Peak stock price: $81.75
> >
> >Average acquisition price for those who bought into CSCO from Jan
1, 2000
> >on a weekly DCA at a service like Buy&Hold.com or stockpoint.com:
$35-$39,
> >depending on day of week.
> >
> >In other words, the stock has lost 2/3rd of the invested amount
over a
> >year and 3 months.
> >
> >Word is, the bear market blows away all bull market funda's.
> >
> >Gitanshu
> >
> >Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
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