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I consider the weekly and daily trend to be down in all markets, however the
move down in the NASDAQ appears to be running out of steam for the moment
while the NYSE, DJIA, Ru2000, and S&P's have accelerated their downward
move. Further, my NASDAQ breadth models are on a buy with bullish divergence
while my NYSE models are on a buy with bearish divergence. VIX is one of my
primary indicators and it is bullish. My general outlook is for a tradable
rally in the NASDAQ using hourly charts and tight stops. We may see rallies
in the other indexes, however I expect that the other indexes will tend to
pressure the NASDAQ - a reversal from last year when the NASDAQ pressured
NYSE rallies. Once these rallies have run their course, it should be time to
expect another leg down. If these rallies run a couple of months, the next
leg down could be the final decline.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steve Walker" <steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 25, 2001 9:35 AM
Subject: [RT] Up from here (soon)?
> There is quite a bit of evidence that an intermediate turning point is in
. In addition to the COT data I sent earlier:
>
> March 16: the total index put/call ratio hits a very high 1.08
> March 16: the equity put/call ratio hits a very high .97
> March 16: the five day avg of adv issues total - five decl issues hits a
high of
> -923.
> March 21: Rydex (Nova + OTC assets) / Ursa hits a very low 4.57
> March 22: intraday VIX hit 41.99
>
> A Bollinger Band application to the equity put/call ratio has signalled
"Buy" for nine days running.
>
> Thursday afternoons price reversal combined with the follow thru on
Friday.
>
> So, I am wrestiling with a change of strategy. Is it time to switch from
"sell the rally" to "buy the dip" ?
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