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Update:
NASDAQ low on 3-16-01 was 1877.6 with a close 1890.9.
Attached are updated daily charts with a blowup of the current price action
and the support MOB. Also a weekly chart.
The NASDAQ may be at a "moment of truth" since we are in the earlier
projected time window on the daily chart of 3/7 to 3/30 and at the lows
today we were right in the middle of the MOB (Make-or-Break) levels of 1905
to 1833 which should provide some support? I would think we would need some
"good news" for a change if these support levels are going to hold (there is
allot of 1200 talk out there if 1800 does not hold?).
If you look at the weekly chart, it shows we are in a Wave 3 down which is
"starting" to go "impulsive" having past the 1.0 swing level there. If the
pattern continues to work and there is a Wave 4 rally up, it will be
eventually be followed by another Wave 5 move down normally (another
September -October tumble?). The form and shape of the Wave 4 rally (if it
happens) however will give clues as to whether a Wave 5 down will ever
materialize (if not this whole down move will be labeled a large ABC
correction). If we do in fact get a Wave 4 rally over the coming months,
the possible fibonacci retracement targets are shown on that weekly chart to
the right, based on Fridays low. I am also using the ellipse retracement
tool (measure the prior swings for a retracement target) which as you can
see caught the Wave 2 high quite well. If this wave 4 up move does occur
the new ellipse and its "shadow" will merge into one circle, which in time
may show potentially where exactly Wave 4 may end, should it materialize.
Is this a buying point . . . hard to say and it depends on your investment
time window obviously, but the fear is getting pretty thick out there this
past week and now add to that the "Japan worries". Everyone, I mean everyone
is looking (and waiting?) for that "final capitulation move down" move it
seems. I am beginning to wonder if that will occur in the NASDAQ at this
point. A number of the bell-weather big cap NASDAQ stocks did not make new
lows on Friday which may be a hopeful sign. These stocks have 5 wave
completed patterns and they are into their own MOB supports. Could some
rotation out of the DOW stocks (now over valued in the flight to quality
move) be occurring to where "new" value might be found, believe it or not
into the "right" NASDAQ stocks (still some real overvalued stuff there too,
so stick with quality)? Don't expect the "analysts to tell you" as was so
appropriately posted in the article a week or so. Someone is buying this
stuff, for every seller there is a buyer as I recall.
Good luck and good investing,
don ewers
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