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My goodness Don... I'm sitting here looking at all your work -- thinking
how much time and energy you must have put into this and I begin to
wonder how a neophyte like me could ever understand things like you
do! Yeah... I'm doing okay in the market -- it's a living and getting
better -- but my understanding of things isn't even close to what it
appears yours is!
My applause to you for sharing your hard work and generosity.
Perhaps someday I may be able to contribute!
Warmly,
Brian Keith Voiles
At 07:48 AM 3/17/2001, you wrote:
>Update:
>
>NASDAQ low on 3-16-01 was 1877.6 with a close 1890.9.
>
>Attached are updated daily charts with a blowup of the current price action
>and the support MOB. Also a weekly chart.
>
>The NASDAQ may be at a "moment of truth" since we are in the earlier
>projected time window on the daily chart of 3/7 to 3/30 and at the lows
>today we were right in the middle of the MOB (Make-or-Break) levels of 1905
>to 1833 which should provide some support? I would think we would need some
>"good news" for a change if these support levels are going to hold (there is
>allot of 1200 talk out there if 1800 does not hold?).
>
>If you look at the weekly chart, it shows we are in a Wave 3 down which is
>"starting" to go "impulsive" having past the 1.0 swing level there. If the
>pattern continues to work and there is a Wave 4 rally up, it will be
>eventually be followed by another Wave 5 move down normally (another
>September -October tumble?). The form and shape of the Wave 4 rally (if it
>happens) however will give clues as to whether a Wave 5 down will ever
>materialize (if not this whole down move will be labeled a large ABC
>correction). If we do in fact get a Wave 4 rally over the coming months,
>the possible fibonacci retracement targets are shown on that weekly chart to
>the right, based on Fridays low. I am also using the ellipse retracement
>tool (measure the prior swings for a retracement target) which as you can
>see caught the Wave 2 high quite well. If this wave 4 up move does occur
>the new ellipse and its "shadow" will merge into one circle, which in time
>may show potentially where exactly Wave 4 may end, should it materialize.
>
>Is this a buying point . . . hard to say and it depends on your investment
>time window obviously, but the fear is getting pretty thick out there this
>past week and now add to that the "Japan worries". Everyone, I mean everyone
>is looking (and waiting?) for that "final capitulation move down" move it
>seems. I am beginning to wonder if that will occur in the NASDAQ at this
>point. A number of the bell-weather big cap NASDAQ stocks did not make new
>lows on Friday which may be a hopeful sign. These stocks have 5 wave
>completed patterns and they are into their own MOB supports. Could some
>rotation out of the DOW stocks (now over valued in the flight to quality
>move) be occurring to where "new" value might be found, believe it or not
>into the "right" NASDAQ stocks (still some real overvalued stuff there too,
>so stick with quality)? Don't expect the "analysts to tell you" as was so
>appropriately posted in the article a week or so. Someone is buying this
>stuff, for every seller there is a buyer as I recall.
>Good luck and good investing,
>don ewers
>
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
>
>
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