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Can I ask the list this was posted on? Thanks.
----- Original Message -----
From: Stig O <olausson@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, March 15, 2001 6:46 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Is the end near -
> This was from another board.
> Healthy reading for bottompickers.
>
> Break out chart for nasdaq included. this time the scale is semilog, which
shows an interesting picture, not shown on ari.
> It still looks like break outs to me.
>
> I agree, we may have a bottom soon, but only back to the breakout trend
line IMHO.
>
> stig
>
> stig
> From: Gary Smith
> Subject: The no fear, be happy, let's keep picking the bottom bear market.
> Views: 160
> Date: 3/14/01 5:04 PM
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
------
>
>
> Can't ever recall a bear market where every trader, analyst, and guru is
out on a daily basis proclaiming a bottom is in. All sorts of methodologies
have predicted one false bottom after another - all that is except for
sentiment. While some sentiment indicators are looking better (such as the
continual weekly net buying by the NYSE members) one most reliable sentiment
indicator - the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of bullish and bearish
newsletter writers -has been saying loud and clear the past several months
that we are nowhere close to a major stock market bottom. During *every*
bear market bottom since this service began in 1963, there was always more
bears than bulls. There were 17 weeks of more bears than bulls during the 66
bear market, 26 weeks in 1970, 31 weeks in 1974, 33 weeks in 1982, 10 weeks
in 1987, and 26 weeks in 90/91. 1994, while not officially a bear market,
saw 11 consecutive months of bearishness and we had 7 weeks in the summer
meltdown of 1998. Oddly enough, we haven't had more
> bears than bulls since late October 1998 - an absolutely amazing amount
of bullishness considering the carnage in the Nasdaq. One reason is the Dow
has held up well since late 1998. The recent breakdown in the Dow may
finally cause some to shed their don't worry, be happy buy the dip posture.
Another sentiment indicator that has been flashing red (actually getter
redder week after week) has been the S&P futures traders Commitments of
Traders Report. The commercials keep selling short, the small specs keeps
buying. I've seen all sorts of conflicting reasons why the Commitments
changed its configurations beginning in May 2000 from its historical norm of
the commercials being primarily net long and the small spec primarily net
short. One note though is that in most futures markets, the commercials are
on the opposite side of big sustained moves as their deep pockets
continually fade the big bull and bear markets. That's what has made this
move in the S&P even more bearish, the commercials have been selling int
> o the decline. Other comments on sentiment... cash levels at mutual funds
are also nowhere close to past bear market bottoms. While the aforementioned
NYSE member net buy/sell activity is very bullish, it is a very imprecise
timing tool. For instance, in 1974, throughout the decline you had major
member buying week after week. I have no idea how the *final* bottom will
unfold. For all I know this bottom will be unlike any of the past. But so
far, it's hard to argue with those who say we need 1) several weeks of more
bears than bulls among the newsletter writers and 2) the commercials
reverting to being net long and the public net short.
>
>
>
>
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