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Joe brings out a very important point; 15% moves in the NDX are quite
common. It is very useful for those who trade the stock index futures to be
aware of the typical swing percentages in the NDX and S&P. I ran a 5% swing
file study on the NDX cash from the September top to Friday's low . The
results are as follows:
Total number of swings 5% or greater: 49
Number of swings 5%-10%: 20
Number of swings 10%-15%: 17
Number of swings 15%-20%: 11
Number of swings 20% +: 1
This period has experienced a relentless downtrend but there have been
significant countertrend moves along the way. Of the twelve moves 15% or
greater, five of them were up. The longest period so far between a 15%+
swing up has been 34 trade days. Monday will mark the 34th trade day since
the last 15% up swing. You can bet the farm on a 15% move up occurring in
the next thirty days. Just make sure the bet does not include determining
the starting point.
Regards,
Tom Alexander
----- Original Message -----
From: Joe Duffy <joeduffy@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 04, 2001 10:04 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] NDX - due for a bounce?
> A 15% over the next month from somewhere is a ver high statistical
> probability. That's less then 300 points from low to high. We had an 8%
move
> from low to high in one day last week.
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, March 04, 2001 2:35 AM
> Subject: [RT] NDX - due for a bounce?
>
>
> > Attached is a chart showing a log liner regression channel with
> > approx. +/- 20% bands beginning at the NDX 100 top in late
> > March, 2000. As shown, the NDX is sufficiently oversold to
> > warrant about a 15% bounce someitme over the next month, or perhaps
> > even a 30% bounce over the next threee months. That said, NDX
> > has attempted a rally once already from this oversold level
> > and failed. The rally failure, combined with poor seasonal trends,
> > (attributed to selling to cover cap gain taxes from the
> > previous year) and the fact that further earnings warnings
> > are likely in the near term, make a difficult case for a
> > strong NDX rally at this time, even though technically the
> > NDX is due for a bounce.
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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