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Re: [RT] NDX - due for a bounce?



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A 15% over the next month from somewhere is a ver high statistical
probability. That's less then 300 points from low to high. We had an 8% move
from low to high in one day last week.



----- Original Message -----
From: <gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 04, 2001 2:35 AM
Subject: [RT] NDX - due for a bounce?


> Attached is a chart showing a log liner regression channel with
> approx. +/- 20% bands beginning at the NDX 100 top in late
> March, 2000.  As shown, the NDX is sufficiently oversold to
> warrant about a 15% bounce someitme over the next month, or perhaps
> even a 30% bounce over the next threee months.  That said, NDX
> has attempted a rally once already from this oversold level
> and failed.  The rally failure, combined with poor seasonal trends,
> (attributed to selling to cover cap gain taxes from the
> previous year) and the fact that further earnings warnings
> are likely in the near term, make a difficult case for a
> strong NDX rally at this time, even though technically the
> NDX is due for a bounce.
>
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