[RT] NDX - due for a bounce?

[gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx]

Attached is a chart showing a log liner regression channel with
approx. +/- 20% bands beginning at the NDX 100 top in late
March, 2000.  As shown, the NDX is sufficiently oversold to
warrant about a 15% bounce someitme over the next month, or perhaps
even a 30% bounce over the next threee months.  That said, NDX
has attempted a rally once already from this oversold level
and failed.  The rally failure, combined with poor seasonal trends,
(attributed to selling to cover cap gain taxes from the
previous year) and the fact that further earnings warnings
are likely in the near term, make a difficult case for a
strong NDX rally at this time, even though technically the
NDX is due for a bounce.

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