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If we get to the point that the last optimist cashes in his chips, we can
all find new professions because you can't make money in what we do without
liquidity and optimists. The fact is that the NAS is down 65% or so with
some components down 80 and 90%. To suggest that the NAS has a long way to
go, is to suggest that zero is not an impossibility. At the rate it has
been falling, zero would be reached within 8 months or so. (Just a glance
estimate).
I'm just trading the daily shifts at this point. I don't have an opinion
about the next general move. I feel a huge bearishness about the market
from those who claim to be forecasters and fear among those who are newbies
or part timers. On the other hand, there is a very large amount of money
sitting on the sidelines to be put in and will *have* to be put in. So, we
get short little spikes up which are seen as opportunities to get out and
then those who got out are immediately looking for chances to get back
in. A trader's paradise.
One aspect of the economy that I never see discussed it that with prices of
equities being hammered, these companies lose borrowing power and in turn,
the means to buy new machinery, inventory, etc. Of course, this bleeds
down to that firm's vendors and then to their vendors, etc. All of this
affects employee compensation and even jobs. We are the tail and we're
wagging the cat. (Didn't want to get another dog thread started). :))
Good trading to everyone.. there is something to be happy about for the
bulls and bears nearly every day. To heck with where the market goes.. as
long as it goes.
Bob
At 09:14 AM 2/28/2001 -0800, you wrote:
>It must be the wrong time to get long. Everyone is looking for a
>bottom. This is not Biblical trading. "Seek and ye shall find" works in
>individual stocks, but not in the indexes. I remember in the 70s when
>all you had to do was sell $1000 worth of calls a day and walk away.
>There was no fear, there were also no puts. Until that same attitude
>prevails, I don't believe there will be a bottom. One needs the last
>optimist to cash in his chips, and the last clearing firm to sell out
>its long position from a trader that went belly up, before this thing
>can turn. I have always been a bear at heart, for technically stocks
>are worthless. They are worth either what they will receive at
>liquidation or what someone else will pay you for them. The greater
>fool theory in action. This doesn't apply to dividend paying stocks as
>there is a return on investment. As long as there is someone out there
>selling the perception that the only place to be is in the stock market,
>then like tulip bulbs, the masses will clamor for stocks, and that
>liquidity will allow we traders to make a good living. For some the
>charts will tell, for others it will be the planets, moon and stars, and
>for others it will be some mystical system that proclaims that all the
>bad times are behind us. As a technician I still believe that one
>should trade what they see and not what they believe or are told. The
>bear market rally can be a vicious lesson for both bull and bear. Good
>trading, Ira
>
>Chris Cheatham wrote:
>
> >
> > Some interesting long term fib targets, etc. Notice how 23.6%
> > retracement (red) is approx. equal to 100% expansion of wave 1 (green)
> > which is approx. equal to blue Andrews line -- about 1775. Nice
> > target for end of 1st leg down. Regards,Chris Cheatham
> >
> >
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>It must be the wrong time to get long. Everyone is looking for a
>bottom. This is not Biblical trading. "Seek and ye shall find" works in
>individual stocks, but not in the indexes. I remember in the 70s when all
>you had to do was sell $1000 worth of calls a day and walk away. There
>was no fear, there were also no puts. Until that same attitude prevails, I
>don't believe there will be a bottom. One needs the last optimist to
>cash in his chips, and the last clearing firm to sell out its long
>position from a trader that went belly up, before this thing can turn. I
>have always been a bear at heart, for technically stocks are
>worthless. They are worth either what they will receive at liquidation
>or what someone else will pay you for them. The greater fool theory in
>action. This doesn't apply to dividend paying stocks as there is a return
>on investment. As long as there is someone out there selling the
>perception that the only place to be is in the stock market, then like
>tulip bulbs, the masses will clamor for stocks, and that liquidity will
>allow we traders to make a good living. For some the charts will tell,
>for others it will be the planets, moon and stars, and for others it will
>be some mystical system that proclaims that all the bad times are behind
>us. As a technician I still believe that one should trade what they see
>and not what they believe or are told. The bear market rally can be a
>vicious lesson for both bull and bear. Good trading, Ira
>
>Chris Cheatham wrote:
>>
>> Some interesting long term fib targets, etc. Notice how 23.6%
>> retracement (red) is approx. equal to 100% expansion of wave 1 (green)
>> which is approx. equal to blue Andrews line -- about 1775. Nice target
>> for end of 1st leg down. Regards,Chris Cheatham
>>
>>
>>
>>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>>
>>
>>Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the
>><http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
>
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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