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The NASDAQ 100 has spent four weeks in a narrow channel with a slope
of -98%/Yr
(-100%/Yr is the max you can have). This cannot be sustained.
Friday's action of the small caps and the Techs coming back at the end of
the day is
a strong positive showing that traders were not afraid to hold over the
weekend and
the worse is probably over.
The overall pattern since the October 1998 bottom (the beginning of the four
year market cycle)
suggests that the correction that started in March 2000 has about played
out.
Enough time has passed to put us near the normal starting point of the third
and final rally
of the four-year cycle.
The Bad news:
The third rally of the four-year cycle is the weakest and it is followed by
the largest correction.
The overall pattern since the October 1998 bottom is one of shorter rallies
(in time and price)
and longer corrections. This is a major shift to a bearish pattern.
If the March-January correction had happened in 2002 we could pass this off
as a normal
four-year correction (1990, 1994, 1998) and expect a big rally to follow.
The current correction
has occurred in the middle of the cycle and was longer in time and price
than the normal four-year
correction that occurs in a Bullish pattern.
The pattern on the OTC and S&P now appears to be a large down sloping
channel formed by a
trend line through the highs in March and September and a parallel line
through the low in
late December.
We should now begin a decent rally off the bottom of the channels but it
will be a bear
market rally. Since 1930 the third rally in the four-year cycle has averaged
23.3% and
lasted 7.2 months on the S&P. Since the current cycle is a bearish pattern
we should
expect the coming rally to be less in time and price.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 10:27 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Re: NDX question
> If you look at a weekly chart of the NASDAQ composite, you will see a
pivot
> low on 19Feb99 at 2224.20 - today closed below that pivot low and the next
> pivot low down is 1357.10 which was the beginning of the parabolic rise.
The
> decline which began 21Jul00 has been so steep that it most certainly
> qualifies as a w.3 and I don't believe w.3 is quite finished although it
may
> be getting close to a rally. (One should not ignore a standard w.3
expansion
> of 162% of W.1 projected from W.3 (10Mar00 PH, 26May00 PL, and 21Jul00 PH)
> projects to 900.) Based on the current low of w.3, AGet is projecting a
w.5
> termination at 1015. While we need w.4 (which should be a nice tradable
> rally lasting a month or more) in order to more closely project the end of
> w.5, I've long believed the NASDAQ would retrace all of its parabolic
rise.
> So there you have a best case of 1357 and current worst case of 1015 with
> the jury still out.
>
> Earl
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jimmy" <jsnowden@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 10:13 AM
> Subject: [RT] Re: NDX question
>
>
> > Recent posts didn't see much upside to the rally. What I see on the NDX
> > chart leads me to think we have a better chance of a nice tradable
upside
> > move than the continuation of the decline.
> >
> > Do any of the Elliott Wave technicians see this or is another
significant
> > down move pretty much needed?
> >
> >
> > Jimmy
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
>
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>
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