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Targets for NDX 2010 to 2020 today on the weak+ side. If strong+ then 2050
to 2090. If negative then weak- 1910 to 1920, and strong- 1845 to 1880.
Should Greenspan cause a crash up, then 2150 and a channel breakout.
Breakout at 2090 would be tough to do as the daily channel is still down and
probability sympathizer is in a sell the rally mode. Crash down, not
expected, but would be 1790 for today only.
bobr
----- Original Message -----
From: "proffittak" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, February 28, 2001 4:43 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: sp50/nasdaq
> The NASDAQ 100 has spent four weeks in a narrow channel with a slope
> of -98%/Yr
> (-100%/Yr is the max you can have). This cannot be sustained.
> Friday's action of the small caps and the Techs coming back at the end of
> the day is
> a strong positive showing that traders were not afraid to hold over the
> weekend and
> the worse is probably over.
>
> The overall pattern since the October 1998 bottom (the beginning of the
four
> year market cycle)
> suggests that the correction that started in March 2000 has about played
> out.
> Enough time has passed to put us near the normal starting point of the
third
> and final rally
> of the four-year cycle.
>
> The Bad news:
> The third rally of the four-year cycle is the weakest and it is followed
by
> the largest correction.
> The overall pattern since the October 1998 bottom is one of shorter
rallies
> (in time and price)
> and longer corrections. This is a major shift to a bearish pattern.
> If the March-January correction had happened in 2002 we could pass this
off
> as a normal
> four-year correction (1990, 1994, 1998) and expect a big rally to follow.
> The current correction
> has occurred in the middle of the cycle and was longer in time and price
> than the normal four-year
> correction that occurs in a Bullish pattern.
>
> The pattern on the OTC and S&P now appears to be a large down sloping
> channel formed by a
> trend line through the highs in March and September and a parallel line
> through the low in
> late December.
>
> We should now begin a decent rally off the bottom of the channels but it
> will be a bear
> market rally. Since 1930 the third rally in the four-year cycle has
averaged
> 23.3% and
> lasted 7.2 months on the S&P. Since the current cycle is a bearish pattern
> we should
> expect the coming rally to be less in time and price.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 10:27 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: NDX question
>
>
> > If you look at a weekly chart of the NASDAQ composite, you will see a
> pivot
> > low on 19Feb99 at 2224.20 - today closed below that pivot low and the
next
> > pivot low down is 1357.10 which was the beginning of the parabolic rise.
> The
> > decline which began 21Jul00 has been so steep that it most certainly
> > qualifies as a w.3 and I don't believe w.3 is quite finished although it
> may
> > be getting close to a rally. (One should not ignore a standard w.3
> expansion
> > of 162% of W.1 projected from W.3 (10Mar00 PH, 26May00 PL, and 21Jul00
PH)
> > projects to 900.) Based on the current low of w.3, AGet is projecting a
> w.5
> > termination at 1015. While we need w.4 (which should be a nice tradable
> > rally lasting a month or more) in order to more closely project the end
of
> > w.5, I've long believed the NASDAQ would retrace all of its parabolic
> rise.
> > So there you have a best case of 1357 and current worst case of 1015
with
> > the jury still out.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jimmy" <jsnowden@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 10:13 AM
> > Subject: [RT] Re: NDX question
> >
> >
> > > Recent posts didn't see much upside to the rally. What I see on the
NDX
> > > chart leads me to think we have a better chance of a nice tradable
> upside
> > > move than the continuation of the decline.
> > >
> > > Do any of the Elliott Wave technicians see this or is another
> significant
> > > down move pretty much needed?
> > >
> > >
> > > Jimmy
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
>
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>
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>
>
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