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Azeem - Actually it wasn't a coulda/shoulda, it was a woulda, just
kidding :-)
Following Earl's comments that the weekly S&P may head towards a 1.618
expansion (following the Nasdaq), look where the MOB (Make Or Break) target
comes in off the previous wave 4, right at the a similar range as a 1.618
expansion? I included the MOB on the weekly chart attached. Something to watch
if we head there?
One question, without doing the research, have all the indexes, Nasdaq,
S&P and Dow gone up similar amounts (%'s) and therefore would be expected to
act similarly in this downturn, or was the Nasdaq the biggest balloon in the
bunch and the other indexes may suffer consolidations (or corrections whatever
you want to call this "bear") that will be less severe?
Also does anyone have any stats on the PE contraction that has occurred (PE
average from the peak to the current PE' average for of each of these
indexes.
don ewers
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Earl Adamy
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001 1:40
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fibonnaci
Following this to possible conclusion, you get a
likely continuation of the decline on the weekly, quite possibly to the 162%
expansion. The deeper decline results in a lower (or eliminated) probability
of the higher high currently suggested by the monthly PTI of 54. This is, in
fact, what we have seen happen already with the NASDAQ which continues to
label the weekly and monthly declines as w.4 with a single digit PTI
indicating a near certainty that the top is in. Historically, the NASDAQ has
led the way in exhibiting both fear and greed. Although the greed and fear
exhibited during the 66-74 market cycle pales in comparison to the
current cycle, I find reference to this period to be most helpful in
interpreting possible outcomes.
Earl
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001 11:57
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fibonnaci
Jimmy,
Ahh, yes October of 1987, he had it right one might say, just the wrong
degree of the count (wave 2, not wave 5), look at the monthly chart
attached where 1987 is. Also attached is the weekly which shows a large ABC
corrective pattern ending near a swing target, so I repeat this is an
important time as to which direction we go from here (the 1.618 expansion
also shows where a wave 3 down (wave A becomes 1, wave B becomes 2 and wave
C becomes 3) might go, ugh, hope not. Keep in mind this whole pattern can
unfold into yet a larger pattern (Mr. P's mistake?) Also of note on the
monthly is the 5/35 oscillator is approaching zero in a month+ which could
mark a wave 4 on the monthly (software posts the wave 4 when the oscillator
gets to zero (or gets within 10% of it)). This folds relatively well into
the weekly chart which is showing internal breakdown of wave 3 on the
monthly, and a possible ABC wave 4? To
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