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Following this to possible conclusion, you get a
likely continuation of the decline on the weekly, quite possibly to the 162%
expansion. The deeper decline results in a lower (or eliminated) probability of
the higher high currently suggested by the monthly PTI of 54. This is, in fact,
what we have seen happen already with the NASDAQ which continues to label the
weekly and monthly declines as w.4 with a single digit PTI indicating a near
certainty that the top is in. Historically, the NASDAQ has led the way in
exhibiting both fear and greed. Although the greed and fear exhibited during
the 66-74 market cycle pales in comparison to the current cycle, I find
reference to this period to be most helpful in interpreting possible
outcomes.
Earl
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, February 10, 2001 11:57
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fibonnaci
Jimmy,
Ahh, yes October of 1987, he had it right one might say, just the wrong
degree of the count (wave 2, not wave 5), look at the monthly chart
attached where 1987 is. Also attached is the weekly which shows a large ABC
corrective pattern ending near a swing target, so I repeat this is an
important time as to which direction we go from here (the 1.618 expansion also
shows where a wave 3 down (wave A becomes 1, wave B becomes 2 and wave C
becomes 3) might go, ugh, hope not. Keep in mind this whole pattern can unfold
into yet a larger pattern (Mr. P's mistake?) Also of note on the monthly is
the 5/35 oscillator is approaching zero in a month+ which could mark a wave 4
on the monthly (software posts the wave 4 when the oscillator gets to zero (or
gets within 10% of it)). This folds relatively well into the weekly chart
which is showing internal breakdown of wave 3 on the monthly, and a possible
ABC wave 4?
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