|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I agree with Joe remark below, and wish to restate what I said: the
market does not care about whether Republicans or Democrats are in
power. You want a proof: there have been as much bear markets or bull
markets during republican or democrat eras.
It would be interesting here to let apart our beliefs and
convictions, and let only the number speak for themselves: what is
the yearly average % increase of the stock market during republican
presidentship and during democrat presidentship for the last 100
years. I do not have the data to perform the operation, but I would
be curious to see the results - I think that we could become very
humble by seeing that the markets really do not care and is not
distributing good or bad points according to the political colour.
Maybe some RT Member who has the needed data could calculate this ?
Carl
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, "Joe Duffy" <joeduffy@xxxx> wrote:
> How do you explain the long bear and crushing market of the US
dollar during
> recent Repbulican presidential terms?
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Michael Ferguson <wl7bdn@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, November 23, 2000 12:07 PM
> Subject: [RT] (unknown)
>
>
> > Carl asked the question, >Do you really think that the US vote
issue will
> > decide for the market direction ? <
> >
> > Here is a trading related response with a long term perspective:
> >
> > Do you think that fiscal and monetary policy, (there IS a
difference),
> > affect the financial condition of a country's businesses?
> >
> > What do you suppose is responsible for Japan's economic
situation? Bad
> > policy, bad luck?
> >
> > What do you think is responsible for France's economy? And the
value of
> > their currency?
> > And Germany. And the value of the DM. Or anywhere. Why was the
euro a
> > slam-dunk short?
> >
> > I am not stating that there is anything wrong with the people in
those
> > countries. Or their currency. I am asking this question: what do
their
> > regulations and tax laws have to do with the viability of their
> businesses?
> >
> > Can an election have long term lasting effects on a market?
Suppose
> > candidate X manages to get in the US presidential office and
appoints to
> the
> > US supreme court the judges that are now on the FL supreme court.
Can you
> > honestly imagine that action would have zero effect on the
direction or
> the
> > strength of the markets? On the prosperity of the country? Or the
rate at
> > which capital is formed and invested?
> >
> > One of the major strengths of the US economy is the reliability of
> contract
> > law. It is the reason that US markets are considered a safe
haven. But
> when
> > you have courts willy-nilly changing contract terms after the
fact, as
> > happened in FL, then you no longer have a safe haven, and you
might as
> will
> > invest in xyzLand, because you will have the same chance of
getting your
> > money back. Twisting contract law is death to an economy. If you
don't
> think
> > so, just imagine the corruption of contract law by the FL court
let loose
> in
> > the Bond pit. The reason traders from around the world trade in
the US is
> > they trust the contract laws. This is one of the deep issues of
this
> > election, and I think it is a crucial reason why the outcome of
this
> > election matters to all of us.
> >
> > Suppose X administration came after, say, daytraders, or,
investors. You
> > think that's not possible? Or contemplated? What if you can no
longer
> short
> > futures? Or currency? Or even invest your own funds where you
choose to?
> Or
> > when you choose to? Do you think this is far-fetched?
> >
> > I was in one business for 28 years. During that period of time
federal
> > agencies that did not exist when I started my business, enforcing
laws and
> > regulations that did not exist, literally choked the profit from
my
> business
> > by increasing the regulatory costs, the legal hazards, and by
> simultaneously
> > reducing my opportunities to conduct business. It is no longer
financially
> > viable. I am money ahead by NOT OPERATING MY BUSINESS. By federal
fiat.
> You
> > think an election has no effect on your future?
> >
> > All of this happened during the last 8 years.
> >
> > Now, what I am asking you to imagine is this:
> >
> > 1: For the next 8 years what happened to my business happens to
more
> > businesses. To YOUR business, to YOUR opportunities.
> >
> > OR
> >
> > 2: For the next 8 years businesses are relieved of anti-business
> government
> > policy.
> >
> > Then ask the question again: "Do you really think that the US
vote issue
> > will decide for the market direction? "
> >
> > HOW COULD this election NOT AFFECT THE MARKETS?
> >
> > Politics and economics are inextricably interwoven, and it seems
short
> sited
> > to ignore this. In the short run, Ira is right, the volatility is
> > opportunity.
> >
> > Best Regards,
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> >
-------------------------- eGroups Sponsor -------------------------~-~>
eGroups eLerts
It's Easy. It's Fun. Best of All, it's Free!
http://click.egroups.com/1/9698/0/_/152424/_/975060983/
---------------------------------------------------------------------_->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
|