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This is a complicated matter. A brief example of what I am going to
say is magnified by a story my father told me about the Steel Mill
that he worked for, for 18 years. The steel company would get upset
about low profits and productivity and get a new superintendent with
a reputation for making money. This new guy would come in and stop
maintenance, cleanup, restocking and even safety. As an example, my
father said that the overhead cranes would have chunks as large as a
base ball broken out of the track wheels that the cranes ran on. This
caused them to bang along as they moved material, jarring both man,
machine and material. This new superintendent would push as hard a
possible to get a strong run to make the numbers look good. As soon
as the numbers improved he would quit and move on. The company would
hire a new man after the "hot shot" left and he would have to come in
and rebuild, maintain and resupply the mill to get it back in good
running order. Profits and productivity would then drop and soon he's
in bad standing with the Company so a new "hot shot" would be brought
in and so on. This is over simplified but a similar scenario can
happen in politics. One party runs down the military, certain
facilities, and governmental supply, but during that time the economy
is high and good time Charley is popular, afterwards a new man comes
in and he is faced with having to rebuild. He can either borrow or
cut government hand outs to pay for it. You know how popular it is
for someone to cut hand outs, so money is borrowed until the day
comes that a lender can't be found. So the markets respond to money,
they don't care much who is in office.
--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, "Carl Vanhaesendonck"
<carl.vanhaesendonck@xxxx> wrote:
> I agree with Joe remark below, and wish to restate what I said: the
> market does not care about whether Republicans or Democrats are in
> power. You want a proof: there have been as much bear markets or
bull
> markets during republican or democrat eras.
> It would be interesting here to let apart our beliefs and
> convictions, and let only the number speak for themselves: what is
> the yearly average % increase of the stock market during republican
> presidentship and during democrat presidentship for the last 100
> years. I do not have the data to perform the operation, but I would
> be curious to see the results - I think that we could become very
> humble by seeing that the markets really do not care and is not
> distributing good or bad points according to the political colour.
>
> Maybe some RT Member who has the needed data could calculate this ?
>
> Carl
>
>
> --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx, "Joe Duffy" <joeduffy@xxxx> wrote:
> > How do you explain the long bear and crushing market of the US
> dollar during
> > recent Repbulican presidential terms?
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Michael Ferguson <wl7bdn@xxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Thursday, November 23, 2000 12:07 PM
> > Subject: [RT] (unknown)
> >
> >
> > > Carl asked the question, >Do you really think that the US vote
> issue will
> > > decide for the market direction ? <
> > >
> > > Here is a trading related response with a long term perspective:
> > >
> > > Do you think that fiscal and monetary policy, (there IS a
> difference),
> > > affect the financial condition of a country's businesses?
> > >
> > > What do you suppose is responsible for Japan's economic
> situation? Bad
> > > policy, bad luck?
> > >
> > > What do you think is responsible for France's economy? And the
> value of
> > > their currency?
> > > And Germany. And the value of the DM. Or anywhere. Why was the
> euro a
> > > slam-dunk short?
> > >
> > > I am not stating that there is anything wrong with the people
in
> those
> > > countries. Or their currency. I am asking this question: what
do
> their
> > > regulations and tax laws have to do with the viability of their
> > businesses?
> > >
> > > Can an election have long term lasting effects on a market?
> Suppose
> > > candidate X manages to get in the US presidential office and
> appoints to
> > the
> > > US supreme court the judges that are now on the FL supreme
court.
> Can you
> > > honestly imagine that action would have zero effect on the
> direction or
> > the
> > > strength of the markets? On the prosperity of the country? Or
the
> rate at
> > > which capital is formed and invested?
> > >
> > > One of the major strengths of the US economy is the reliability
of
> > contract
> > > law. It is the reason that US markets are considered a safe
> haven. But
> > when
> > > you have courts willy-nilly changing contract terms after the
> fact, as
> > > happened in FL, then you no longer have a safe haven, and you
> might as
> > will
> > > invest in xyzLand, because you will have the same chance of
> getting your
> > > money back. Twisting contract law is death to an economy. If
you
> don't
> > think
> > > so, just imagine the corruption of contract law by the FL court
> let loose
> > in
> > > the Bond pit. The reason traders from around the world trade in
> the US is
> > > they trust the contract laws. This is one of the deep issues of
> this
> > > election, and I think it is a crucial reason why the outcome of
> this
> > > election matters to all of us.
> > >
> > > Suppose X administration came after, say, daytraders, or,
> investors. You
> > > think that's not possible? Or contemplated? What if you can no
> longer
> > short
> > > futures? Or currency? Or even invest your own funds where you
> choose to?
> > Or
> > > when you choose to? Do you think this is far-fetched?
> > >
> > > I was in one business for 28 years. During that period of time
> federal
> > > agencies that did not exist when I started my business,
enforcing
> laws and
> > > regulations that did not exist, literally choked the profit
from
> my
> > business
> > > by increasing the regulatory costs, the legal hazards, and by
> > simultaneously
> > > reducing my opportunities to conduct business. It is no longer
> financially
> > > viable. I am money ahead by NOT OPERATING MY BUSINESS. By
federal
> fiat.
> > You
> > > think an election has no effect on your future?
> > >
> > > All of this happened during the last 8 years.
> > >
> > > Now, what I am asking you to imagine is this:
> > >
> > > 1: For the next 8 years what happened to my business happens to
> more
> > > businesses. To YOUR business, to YOUR opportunities.
> > >
> > > OR
> > >
> > > 2: For the next 8 years businesses are relieved of anti-business
> > government
> > > policy.
> > >
> > > Then ask the question again: "Do you really think that the US
> vote issue
> > > will decide for the market direction? "
> > >
> > > HOW COULD this election NOT AFFECT THE MARKETS?
> > >
> > > Politics and economics are inextricably interwoven, and it
seems
> short
> > sited
> > > to ignore this. In the short run, Ira is right, the volatility
is
> > > opportunity.
> > >
> > > Best Regards,
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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