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How do you explain the long bear and crushing market of the US dollar during
recent Repbulican presidential terms?
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Ferguson <wl7bdn@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, November 23, 2000 12:07 PM
Subject: [RT] (unknown)
> Carl asked the question, >Do you really think that the US vote issue will
> decide for the market direction ? <
>
> Here is a trading related response with a long term perspective:
>
> Do you think that fiscal and monetary policy, (there IS a difference),
> affect the financial condition of a country's businesses?
>
> What do you suppose is responsible for Japan's economic situation? Bad
> policy, bad luck?
>
> What do you think is responsible for France's economy? And the value of
> their currency?
> And Germany. And the value of the DM. Or anywhere. Why was the euro a
> slam-dunk short?
>
> I am not stating that there is anything wrong with the people in those
> countries. Or their currency. I am asking this question: what do their
> regulations and tax laws have to do with the viability of their
businesses?
>
> Can an election have long term lasting effects on a market? Suppose
> candidate X manages to get in the US presidential office and appoints to
the
> US supreme court the judges that are now on the FL supreme court. Can you
> honestly imagine that action would have zero effect on the direction or
the
> strength of the markets? On the prosperity of the country? Or the rate at
> which capital is formed and invested?
>
> One of the major strengths of the US economy is the reliability of
contract
> law. It is the reason that US markets are considered a safe haven. But
when
> you have courts willy-nilly changing contract terms after the fact, as
> happened in FL, then you no longer have a safe haven, and you might as
will
> invest in xyzLand, because you will have the same chance of getting your
> money back. Twisting contract law is death to an economy. If you don't
think
> so, just imagine the corruption of contract law by the FL court let loose
in
> the Bond pit. The reason traders from around the world trade in the US is
> they trust the contract laws. This is one of the deep issues of this
> election, and I think it is a crucial reason why the outcome of this
> election matters to all of us.
>
> Suppose X administration came after, say, daytraders, or, investors. You
> think that's not possible? Or contemplated? What if you can no longer
short
> futures? Or currency? Or even invest your own funds where you choose to?
Or
> when you choose to? Do you think this is far-fetched?
>
> I was in one business for 28 years. During that period of time federal
> agencies that did not exist when I started my business, enforcing laws and
> regulations that did not exist, literally choked the profit from my
business
> by increasing the regulatory costs, the legal hazards, and by
simultaneously
> reducing my opportunities to conduct business. It is no longer financially
> viable. I am money ahead by NOT OPERATING MY BUSINESS. By federal fiat.
You
> think an election has no effect on your future?
>
> All of this happened during the last 8 years.
>
> Now, what I am asking you to imagine is this:
>
> 1: For the next 8 years what happened to my business happens to more
> businesses. To YOUR business, to YOUR opportunities.
>
> OR
>
> 2: For the next 8 years businesses are relieved of anti-business
government
> policy.
>
> Then ask the question again: "Do you really think that the US vote issue
> will decide for the market direction? "
>
> HOW COULD this election NOT AFFECT THE MARKETS?
>
> Politics and economics are inextricably interwoven, and it seems short
sited
> to ignore this. In the short run, Ira is right, the volatility is
> opportunity.
>
> Best Regards,
>
>
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> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
>
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