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I think pre-announcement moves tell us more about the psychology of the
market. We've often seen strong bond/stock moves begin a day or two
before a fed meeting or employment report which tells us that the market
is extremely bullish or bearish. That can be very useful information.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steven W. Poser" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, June 09, 2000 9:54 AM
Subject: [RT] RE: Re: Friday's Direction - follow up
> I have played that game for years -- forecasting economic reports
based on
> what the bond, eurodollar and futures charts say. But, to be honest,
that is
> total BS. I do it because it plays well, but unless you believe that
the
> data are leaked or manipulated (and most of you know I am Mr.
> Anti-Conspiracy Theory), you really cannot predict the release.
>
> What you can predict is how the market will react to a number. That is
what
> this sort of analysis does best. You can also predict a number based
on what
> the charts appear to be calling for, which is what I do and I gather
what
> Kroll does, but that is a highly subjective bit of sleight of hand. I
> remember one time when the market was expecting +300,000 on the
payroll
> report. The market was already moving higher anyway, and this sort of
number
> was priced in. But, I was bearish bonds and looking for a 2-3 point
> correction. The number came out at -2,000. The market gapped up 1/2
point
> and fell the rest of the day and finished down about a point. If I had
> forecast the data based on the charts, I would have had to have been
calling
> for something like +450,000.
>
> In the end, by the way, those numbers were so much weaker than
expected,
> that bonds did not keep falling for about 3 points, which I had
expected,
> but instead moved sideways the rest of the following week and
ultimately
> moved higher.
>
> ---
> Steven W. Poser, President
> Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
> http://www.poserglobal.com
> swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Tel: 201-995-0845
> Fax: 201-995-0846
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> Behalf Of sheley
> Sent: Friday, June 09, 2000 11:40 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] Re: Friday's Direction - follow up
>
>
> >>>>>>>>If the market is acting bullish (that's another story) the
news will
> usually
> comply.... and the other way around. It may sound strange but the
markets
> predict the news!
>
> Stanley Kroll has a great example in "Kroll on Futures Trading
Strategy".
> He bet a friend that he could predict what the news would be based on
what
> the price action was. Has some hilarious examples for the cocoa
market.
>
> Believe this book came out around 1986. It is a very good read with
> wonderful charts and reasons for his various trades.
>
> Connie
>
>
>
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