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Among other interesting comments, Steven W. Poser observed:
> What you can predict is how the market will react to a number. That is
what
> this sort of analysis does best. You can also predict a number based on
what
> the charts appear to be calling for, which is what I do and I gather what
> Kroll does, but that is a highly subjective bit of sleight of hand.
(etc.)
Actually, Kroll wasn't trying to develop useful trading "leads" from
reports.
His point was that most of the "analysis" you see that purports to explain
market action is formulaic BS. He chose a market where a limited number
of well-known fundamental factors is used to explain most of the zigs and
zags in the market -- government action, capsid fly, lots of beans found in
a warehouse, etc. -- and had no trouble picking out the one or two "usual
suspects" that were sure to be blamed for today's action in tomorrow's
newspapers. (This was before the Net made this kind of thing virtually
instantaneous; may even have been before CNN was a factor.)
Owen Davies
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