|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I have played that game for years -- forecasting economic reports based on
what the bond, eurodollar and futures charts say. But, to be honest, that is
total BS. I do it because it plays well, but unless you believe that the
data are leaked or manipulated (and most of you know I am Mr.
Anti-Conspiracy Theory), you really cannot predict the release.
What you can predict is how the market will react to a number. That is what
this sort of analysis does best. You can also predict a number based on what
the charts appear to be calling for, which is what I do and I gather what
Kroll does, but that is a highly subjective bit of sleight of hand. I
remember one time when the market was expecting +300,000 on the payroll
report. The market was already moving higher anyway, and this sort of number
was priced in. But, I was bearish bonds and looking for a 2-3 point
correction. The number came out at -2,000. The market gapped up 1/2 point
and fell the rest of the day and finished down about a point. If I had
forecast the data based on the charts, I would have had to have been calling
for something like +450,000.
In the end, by the way, those numbers were so much weaker than expected,
that bonds did not keep falling for about 3 points, which I had expected,
but instead moved sideways the rest of the following week and ultimately
moved higher.
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
-----Original Message-----
From: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of sheley
Sent: Friday, June 09, 2000 11:40 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Re: Friday's Direction - follow up
>>>>>>>>If the market is acting bullish (that's another story) the news will
usually
comply.... and the other way around. It may sound strange but the markets
predict the news!
Stanley Kroll has a great example in "Kroll on Futures Trading Strategy".
He bet a friend that he could predict what the news would be based on what
the price action was. Has some hilarious examples for the cocoa market.
Believe this book came out around 1986. It is a very good read with
wonderful charts and reasons for his various trades.
Connie
|