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In "Sociomics" R. Prechter says he couldn't find any age
cohort/NYSE price corrlelation which held up over the entire history
of the exchange and of census data.
What he did find was that the number of conceptions (9 month
back-dated live births) correlated with the NYSE A/D line since the
A/D was first calculated in 1926.
His conclusion is that exuberance for stocks is paralleled by
exuberance for making babies.....;-))) hmmmmmmmmm.
TD
From: gary@xxxxxxxxxxxx (Gary Funck)
Date sent: Sun, 2 Apr 2000 10:57:57 -0700
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] BOOMER BIRTH RATE vs. NYSE
> On Apr 2, 10:15am, Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx wrote:
> >
> > I was just wondering if anyone on RT is aware of this
> > different version of the Harry Dent demographics thesis,..
> > or knows of any studies (online?) which examine the
> > correlation between the rate of annual conceptions and
> > the overall stock market. Any feedback appreciated.
>
> Attached, is a chart showing the DJIA vs. the size of the
> age 25-36 cohort. In a study that I did, this age group
> showed the strongest correlation to changes in the DjIA.
> Dent used an older age group (40-49), which peaks later
> (2007-8), but I found a weaker correlation for that
> age group (also attached).
>
> The age 36 cohort peaks in 2000-2001. If this age group
> is an important driver, then there will be some tough
> sledding ahead - about 5 to 6 years earlier than Dent
> predicts.
>
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