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ditto
cnedgo@xxxxxxxx
Raj Goyal wrote:
>
> I believe i have this book and if any one is interested make me an offer in
> private. rajgoyal@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx and i will send it to you.
>
> raj goyal
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "George Limberg" <glimberg@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 2:35 PM
> Subject: [RT] Re: Delta Phenomenon
>
> > John,
> >
> > I just read Norman's reply which will address the methodology, but I would
> > look very closely at the statistical significance of what the vendor is
> > saying.
> >
> > I received the same booklet in the mail yesterday and for fun, I counted
> up
> > the number of arrows on one of their charts that spanned approximately a
> > little more than a one year period, which I roughly estimate to be about
> 300
> > trading days. There were 30 turns indicated.
> >
> > If we expand these 30 turns over 300 bars and give each turn a plus or
> minus
> > four day window, you have now effectively covered 270 bars. (take the day
> of
> > the forecasted turn itself and give four days prior and four days into the
> > future for the turn to occur and you have provided a nine day window to be
> > "correct", 30 * 9 =270)
> >
> > Statistically then, 270 out of 300 bars being covered is 90%, so when a
> > vendor claims 80%, he is actually doing worse than random chance.
> >
> > Further, taking the shorter example of 51% with a two day window, this
> > provides a 5-day envelope.
> > 30 turns times 5 bars = 150 bars out of 300 are covered or 50%, very close
> > to what the vendor says is the accuracy rate.
> >
> > This sure gives a very generous interpretation to what "accuracy" really
> is.
> > I would give the method much more credence if it selected say 2-3 turns
> per
> > year plus or minus 4 days. That would be more acceptable in terms of
> trading
> > and the magnitude of the expected move in order to make it tradeable. With
> a
> > turn every 10 market days, plus or minus four days, you really have to
> work
> > hard in order to MISS a date in my estimation.
> >
> > >From what I know about Delta, there are also rules where an inversion
> takes
> > place, an extra beat can take place, etc. etc. All of this in the name of
> > spin control to justify how "valid" the product is.
> >
> > In my estimation, this technique has never been shown as being successful.
> > There's a reason why a multi thousand dollar method is now being sold for
> > $175, and I think we all know what it is.
> >
> > GL
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Jrhall2946@xxxxxxx <Jrhall2946@xxxxxxx>
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Date: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 12:50 PM
> > Subject: [RT] Delta Phenomenon
> >
> >
> > >I received a booklet in the mail the other day from Welles Wilder. He is
> > selling something called the Delta Phenomenon in a book he has written.
> It
> > sounds interesting but...
> > >
> > >Does anyone know anything about it? He claims to be able to call market
> > tops and bottoms within 2-4 days. 2 days=51%, 3days=68% and 4 days=81%.
> I
> > would appreciate it if someone could satisfy my curiosity.
> > >
> > >Regards;
> > >John Hall
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
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