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I believe i have this book and if any one is interested make me an offer in
private. rajgoyal@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx and i will send it to you.
raj goyal
----- Original Message -----
From: "George Limberg" <glimberg@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 2:35 PM
Subject: [RT] Re: Delta Phenomenon
> John,
>
> I just read Norman's reply which will address the methodology, but I would
> look very closely at the statistical significance of what the vendor is
> saying.
>
> I received the same booklet in the mail yesterday and for fun, I counted
up
> the number of arrows on one of their charts that spanned approximately a
> little more than a one year period, which I roughly estimate to be about
300
> trading days. There were 30 turns indicated.
>
> If we expand these 30 turns over 300 bars and give each turn a plus or
minus
> four day window, you have now effectively covered 270 bars. (take the day
of
> the forecasted turn itself and give four days prior and four days into the
> future for the turn to occur and you have provided a nine day window to be
> "correct", 30 * 9 =270)
>
> Statistically then, 270 out of 300 bars being covered is 90%, so when a
> vendor claims 80%, he is actually doing worse than random chance.
>
> Further, taking the shorter example of 51% with a two day window, this
> provides a 5-day envelope.
> 30 turns times 5 bars = 150 bars out of 300 are covered or 50%, very close
> to what the vendor says is the accuracy rate.
>
> This sure gives a very generous interpretation to what "accuracy" really
is.
> I would give the method much more credence if it selected say 2-3 turns
per
> year plus or minus 4 days. That would be more acceptable in terms of
trading
> and the magnitude of the expected move in order to make it tradeable. With
a
> turn every 10 market days, plus or minus four days, you really have to
work
> hard in order to MISS a date in my estimation.
>
> >From what I know about Delta, there are also rules where an inversion
takes
> place, an extra beat can take place, etc. etc. All of this in the name of
> spin control to justify how "valid" the product is.
>
> In my estimation, this technique has never been shown as being successful.
> There's a reason why a multi thousand dollar method is now being sold for
> $175, and I think we all know what it is.
>
> GL
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jrhall2946@xxxxxxx <Jrhall2946@xxxxxxx>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Tuesday, February 29, 2000 12:50 PM
> Subject: [RT] Delta Phenomenon
>
>
> >I received a booklet in the mail the other day from Welles Wilder. He is
> selling something called the Delta Phenomenon in a book he has written.
It
> sounds interesting but...
> >
> >Does anyone know anything about it? He claims to be able to call market
> tops and bottoms within 2-4 days. 2 days=51%, 3days=68% and 4 days=81%.
I
> would appreciate it if someone could satisfy my curiosity.
> >
> >Regards;
> >John Hall
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
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