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Dear Steve,
I beg to difer with you.Because I am the first person you have heard this
from does not mean it is not true.
It is based upon Fundamental analysis from Grad school profs and texts as
well as many fine articles from Barrons before they were "trendy".
It is a judgment call even by your standards.
Respectfully,
John
>From: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>, <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: [RT] Market Direction-Dow/S&P
>Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2000 09:03:00 -0500
>
>John -
>
>You must be the first person that I have ever met to call 12.5% a bear
>market!
>
>There is no exact definition for a bear market, but the general ones
>are:
>
>1) At least 20% drop in the Dow.
>
>2) Some put a timeframe on it too. A shallower drop in the Dow can be
>considered a bear if it takes a long time. If we were down 15% over a
>period of a year or so, it might be categorized a Dow, though even then,
>many would probably just call it a consolidation.
>
>Almost NOBODY considers the drop in 1998 a bear market since the Dow
>never CLOSED down 20%. They do not even consider it a CORRECTION until
>it is down 10%.
>
>---
>Steven W. Poser, President
>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>
>url: http://www.poserglobal.com
>email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>Tel: 201-995-0845
>Fax: 201-995-0846
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Dr. John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Friday, February 25, 2000 11:44 PM
>Subject: [RT] Market Direction-Dow/S&P
>
>
> >
> > I am neither a Bull or a Bear but having bought and sold stocks since
>I was
> > 16 years old [and yes they let me do it at the time-Merrill Lynch]
>these are
> > my thoughts as an observer of many posts:
> >
> > 1.By definition we are in a Bear market.That is greater than a 12.5%
>Dow
> > decline.Currently we have hit about a 17% decline.
> >
> > 2.We have already hit the 3 step and stumble rule of interest
>rates.And
> > T-Bond yields have negated the increases to date.
> >
> > 3.Value is returning to many stocks conventionally valued.
> >
> > 4.Janus which has the ability to time niches is bringing out the
>Strategic
> > Value Fund as previously indicated at a very interesting point in time
>to be
> > funded.
> >
> > 5.Buffet just made some big value purchases.
> >
> > 6.In a good economy such as this Bear markets are short lived and if
>this
> > one goes longer than 2 more months I will be surprised.In bad
>economies I
> > believe Bear markets last on average 9 months to 3 years.
> >
> > 7.The Nasdaq 100 is a market unto itself and valued by parameters
>never
> > before endorsed other than to high growth rate stocks and even beyond
>that.
> >
> > 8.Ditto the micro caps.
> >
> > 9.Greenspan was fried at the Humphrey-Hawkins hearings and actually
>ate crow
> > on many responses although he "Greenspoke" his way out very well.
> >
> > My conclusions without astrology ,charts,Gann and what have you are
>these:
> >
> > A. We will see 12,500 on the Dow before we see 7500.
> >
> > B. We will see 1550 on the S&P before we see 1100.
> >
> > C. We will see 5000 on the Nasdaq before we see 3000.
> >
> > I also vividly remember 1987 and having a Blue Chip portfolio which I
>had
> > sold covered calls on.The market tumbled and I did not lose any sleep
> > because value returned and so did the total value of my portfolio and
> > more.That was what I would call oversold by any standard.
> >
> > Sincerely,
> >
> > John
> >
> > P.S. Agilent is the next GE and some Dow stocks are a steal right now.
> > Merck just to name one.
> > ______________________________________________________
> > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> >
> >
> >
>
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