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True, the definition is vague, but if we went by grad schools, we'd
really be in trouble! They also believe in the efficient market theory.
And, since when was fundamental analysis worth anything at all? A
CORRECTION is usually considered to be around 10% in the Dow more often
than not, especially when it is over 2-3 months. A bear is not 12.5% in
such a short time frame. As for Barron's, they have all the credibility
of the National Enquirer. While the definition is vague at best, 12.5%
does not show up on the radar screens for bear market.
By your definition, we missed a bear market by 0.2% last summer, and had
one from August-October 1997. I know virtually nobody that even
considers the summer of 1998 a bear. When I suggested it was among the
many professional market analysts I know and have worked with, I was
ridiculed. To suggest that 12.5% is a bear, if you are using the Dow,
makes little sense. That it is a bear market by almost any standard for
the majority of all stocks is a different story, especially since it has
been that way for a year or more. I am just commenting that the 12.5%
figure for the Dow is not in line with market practice. Market practice
is not always right, admittedly, but ya gotta go with those definitions.
There might be some texts that say 12.5%, but maybe they are based on
historical periods when the normal range for the market per year was
much less wide than it is now. I certainly would not say such texts do
not exist, but just because you read it in a book, does not make it
correct. And, if you read it in Barrons, it is probably wrong (LOL).
---
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
url: http://www.poserglobal.com
email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tel: 201-995-0845
Fax: 201-995-0846
----- Original Message -----
From: Dr. John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>; <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>;
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, February 26, 2000 11:01 AM
Subject: Market Direction-Dow/S&P
> Dear Steve,
>
> I beg to difer with you.Because I am the first person you have heard
this
> from does not mean it is not true.
>
> It is based upon Fundamental analysis from Grad school profs and texts
as
> well as many fine articles from Barrons before they were "trendy".
>
> It is a judgment call even by your standards.
>
> Respectfully,
>
> John
>
>
> >From: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> >Reply-To: "swp" <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> >To: <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>, <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: Re: [RT] Market Direction-Dow/S&P
> >Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2000 09:03:00 -0500
> >
> >John -
> >
> >You must be the first person that I have ever met to call 12.5% a
bear
> >market!
> >
> >There is no exact definition for a bear market, but the general ones
> >are:
> >
> >1) At least 20% drop in the Dow.
> >
> >2) Some put a timeframe on it too. A shallower drop in the Dow can be
> >considered a bear if it takes a long time. If we were down 15% over a
> >period of a year or so, it might be categorized a Dow, though even
then,
> >many would probably just call it a consolidation.
> >
> >Almost NOBODY considers the drop in 1998 a bear market since the Dow
> >never CLOSED down 20%. They do not even consider it a CORRECTION
until
> >it is down 10%.
> >
> >---
> >Steven W. Poser, President
> >Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
> >
> >url: http://www.poserglobal.com
> >email: swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >Tel: 201-995-0845
> >Fax: 201-995-0846
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: Dr. John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Sent: Friday, February 25, 2000 11:44 PM
> >Subject: [RT] Market Direction-Dow/S&P
> >
> >
> > >
> > > I am neither a Bull or a Bear but having bought and sold stocks
since
> >I was
> > > 16 years old [and yes they let me do it at the time-Merrill Lynch]
> >these are
> > > my thoughts as an observer of many posts:
> > >
> > > 1.By definition we are in a Bear market.That is greater than a
12.5%
> >Dow
> > > decline.Currently we have hit about a 17% decline.
> > >
> > > 2.We have already hit the 3 step and stumble rule of interest
> >rates.And
> > > T-Bond yields have negated the increases to date.
> > >
> > > 3.Value is returning to many stocks conventionally valued.
> > >
> > > 4.Janus which has the ability to time niches is bringing out the
> >Strategic
> > > Value Fund as previously indicated at a very interesting point in
time
> >to be
> > > funded.
> > >
> > > 5.Buffet just made some big value purchases.
> > >
> > > 6.In a good economy such as this Bear markets are short lived and
if
> >this
> > > one goes longer than 2 more months I will be surprised.In bad
> >economies I
> > > believe Bear markets last on average 9 months to 3 years.
> > >
> > > 7.The Nasdaq 100 is a market unto itself and valued by parameters
> >never
> > > before endorsed other than to high growth rate stocks and even
beyond
> >that.
> > >
> > > 8.Ditto the micro caps.
> > >
> > > 9.Greenspan was fried at the Humphrey-Hawkins hearings and
actually
> >ate crow
> > > on many responses although he "Greenspoke" his way out very well.
> > >
> > > My conclusions without astrology ,charts,Gann and what have you
are
> >these:
> > >
> > > A. We will see 12,500 on the Dow before we see 7500.
> > >
> > > B. We will see 1550 on the S&P before we see 1100.
> > >
> > > C. We will see 5000 on the Nasdaq before we see 3000.
> > >
> > > I also vividly remember 1987 and having a Blue Chip portfolio
which I
> >had
> > > sold covered calls on.The market tumbled and I did not lose any
sleep
> > > because value returned and so did the total value of my portfolio
and
> > > more.That was what I would call oversold by any standard.
> > >
> > > Sincerely,
> > >
> > > John
> > >
> > > P.S. Agilent is the next GE and some Dow stocks are a steal right
now.
> > > Merck just to name one.
> > > ______________________________________________________
> > > Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
>
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