[RT] S&P500 Near Term High Risk....?

[Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx]

I am seeing several negatives at this point in time 
which make me think that a sharp decline is likely 
in the near term.  This is not my normal thought process,...
usually biased to the upside trading range,..etc.,..and it is 
unsettling.  Of concern:

Topping pattern of 32-34 mkt days from the top,...has marked
end of  Wave B "recovery" (see chart of 1994 top) in the past.
02-17 is 33 market days from the 1469 high on 12-31-99.

Index Put/Call ratio has been very low past two days,...
02-16 = 1.00,.... 02-17 = 1.02,....unusual considering the reversal
of early morning gains today.  No fear,..complacency is high.
Weekly sentiment survey of investment advisors (Inv Intell) has 
been over 50% Bulls for many weeks.  Firmly "overbelieved".

Retailers falling apart.  WMT is good example.  Didn't the retailers
take gas ahead of the Break in 1987?.... Other former leaders are
now right on long term uptrend lines....MSFT for instance. 

Talking heads on CNBC are suggesting that any money
exiting from OTC would rotate into undervalued S&P500,...
but I cannot see it,..if the OTC gets hit,..the S&P500 will
tank too due to now 32% exposure to Technology in the S&P500.

There are bullish considerations. For instance seasonally the 
day before and day after a Holiday (Monday) are bullish.  And short
term indicators are "oversold".  Liquidity is high,..etc.  Still,..to me 
the negatives outweigh the positives.  Nagging thoughts...

Could this be the dip that should not be bought?...
or are these feelings the best contrary indicator?

Any feedback or input from others is appreciated.

Regards, Jim Pilliod     jpilleafe@xxxxxxx