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Hi Jim,
I agree on what you said. Over the past weekend I was watching CNN and when
the market reports came on, I was shocked. The reporter said " the market
is down 10% from its high". I thought we measured the DOW from 12/31?
This was a signal for me that money managers were trying to tell people that
its just a 10% correction and to start putting money back into the market.
In other words many are in trouble with this market.
My CIT for Feb 15, worked like a charm, the only problem, everyone else
thought so too. Like I said before I'm bullish from March 1-15. There are
other CIT dates within 1-15 but generally speaking. From March 15-21 major
downtrend. Greenspan speaks March 21, interest rate hike.
Wall Street Journal had an semi interesting story on page C1 " If Concept
Stocks are stuff Dreams Are Made On, Does a Rude Awakening Loom?" ---a
castle in the sky story.
If the market is to correct than it will most likely fall between 25%-33%
from 12/31 close. IMO. Nothing special here just following price.
TradeWell,
Joe Frabosilio
Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx wrote:
> I am seeing several negatives at this point in time
> which make me think that a sharp decline is likely
> in the near term. This is not my normal thought process,...
> usually biased to the upside trading range,..etc.,..and it is
> unsettling. Of concern:
>
> Topping pattern of 32-34 mkt days from the top,...has marked
> end of Wave B "recovery" (see chart of 1994 top) in the past.
> 02-17 is 33 market days from the 1469 high on 12-31-99.
>
> Index Put/Call ratio has been very low past two days,...
> 02-16 = 1.00,.... 02-17 = 1.02,....unusual considering the reversal
> of early morning gains today. No fear,..complacency is high.
> Weekly sentiment survey of investment advisors (Inv Intell) has
> been over 50% Bulls for many weeks. Firmly "overbelieved".
>
> Retailers falling apart. WMT is good example. Didn't the retailers
> take gas ahead of the Break in 1987?.... Other former leaders are
> now right on long term uptrend lines....MSFT for instance.
>
> Talking heads on CNBC are suggesting that any money
> exiting from OTC would rotate into undervalued S&P500,...
> but I cannot see it,..if the OTC gets hit,..the S&P500 will
> tank too due to now 32% exposure to Technology in the S&P500.
>
> There are bullish considerations. For instance seasonally the
> day before and day after a Holiday (Monday) are bullish. And short
> term indicators are "oversold". Liquidity is high,..etc. Still,..to me
> the negatives outweigh the positives. Nagging thoughts...
>
> Could this be the dip that should not be bought?...
> or are these feelings the best contrary indicator?
>
> Any feedback or input from others is appreciated.
>
> Regards, Jim Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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