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<p>Gwenael Gautier wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE>Without the greater fool theory, wouldn't trading
be impossible? Why
<br>else would you buy breakouts Hmmm?<font color="#FF0000"> I don't buy
into them. I am usually a seller, I have bought earlier. If you think
that is smoke and mirrors, I will give you a couple of names that will
confirm that fact.</font>
<p>Besides, one can only see in hindsight who is the fool. Whenever I enter
<br>a trade, I just assume I am the fool, so I am not surprised, if the
<br>market gladly lets me know that fact... <font color="#FF0000">When
I enter a trade I assume that I am right, or why else would I even consider
entering the trade. </font>In the last two/three years and
<br>since october in particular, the fools were the sellers of tech, buyers
<br>of non tech. <font color="#FF0000">Surprising as it may seem to you,
there was just as much money to be made in the old horses as there was
in those hi tech wonders. </font>That's maybe hard to swallow for
some, but that's a fact.<font color="#FF0000"> It is not a fact, it is
myopic thinking.</font>
<br>We shall see in six months who are the next fools, maybe the same,
maybe
<br>the reverse, maybe both, or none... I don't know. All I can do is trade
<br>the trend and the breakouts, thats all my map is showing! That's the
<br>only way I know to reduce chances I am the fool...<font color="#FF0000">
The foolish thing to do is to trade breakouts, they are only profitable
38% of the time+/-, and as far as the trend is concerned, you determine
the trend when you decide on the time frame you are going to trade.
It is your decisions that make you profitable, and not the market.
Ira.</font>
<p>Gwenn
<p>Ira Tunik wrote:
<p>> The greater fool theory in full force. Ira
<br>>
<br>> wallst wrote:
<br>>
<br>>> One cant help but to be in aw of the strength of the Nasdaq.
Its
<br>>> interesting to see how even though the Dow is well into a short
term
<br>>> correction, the Nasdaq continues to climb even higher. So
how much
<br>>> higher can it go before we see some kind of sell off?and if and
when
<br>>> it does start to sell off, how will the market handle it? Over the
<br>>> last month or so I have observed what appears to be a pattern that
I
<br>>> see on a daily basis. What that pattern is, is just before
a trend
<br>>> reverses, I start to see the market oscillate with wider swings
<br>>> showing a battle between the buyers and sellers. In other
words in
<br>>> a climbing market, you will see the market pull back a little harder
<br>>> giving evidence that sellers are now comming into the market.
You
<br>>> will also notice that on this last recent leg up, the market has
<br>>> only barely broken through the previous high. I can not say whether
<br>>> or not these indications are signs that the nasdaq will drop.
I am
<br>>> simply making observations as to the things I see. I also
feel that
<br>>> there are many new people in the market who has not yet gone through
<br>>> a substantial correction. I know when I first started trading,
<br>>> there were many no no's that I did until I got my hand spanked,
like
<br>>> running stops and doubling up when I was wrong on a trade.
The true
<br>>> fact here is even with the recent volatility, the nasdaq has yet
to
<br>>> take out any support levels, which would suggest that the recent
<br>>> selling that we have seen so far may only be a preview of things
to
<br>>> come. But then again now when I think about it back in 92' I
<br>>> remember client telling me he didnt want to buy any stock at that
<br>>> time because he felt the market was overbought. (At that time the
<br>>> dow was trading at 2800). Oh well. =) Troy Pwallst@xxxxxxxx
<br>></blockquote>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Feb 15 09:54:22 2000
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Date: Tue, 15 Feb 2000 18:43:40 +0100
From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
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Status:
Different styles I guess. nevertheless, I always assume I am wrong. If
the market doesn't prove me right, I kill the position, if it proves me
right I keep it or even add to it. That works quite well for me, keeps
losses really small. As for breakouts, I found it nice to wait till the
market starts moving, rather than anticipating. I don't know enough as
to know why the market should turn here or there in advance. Btw, my hit
ratio is way over 38%., and quite steady under all market conditions,
all time frames from tick to weekly. So maybe we don't look at the same
breakouts... Now hit ratio is not everything, I know all that. Let's
just say that my expectancy is fairly positive.
Never mind,
foolishly,
Gwenn
Ira Tunik wrote:
>
>
> Gwenael Gautier wrote:
>
>> Without the greater fool theory, wouldn't trading be impossible?
>> Why
>> else would you buy breakouts Hmmm? I don't buy into them. I am
>> usually a seller, I have bought earlier. If you think that is smoke
>> and mirrors, I will give you a couple of names that will confirm
>> that fact.
>>
>> Besides, one can only see in hindsight who is the fool. Whenever I
>> enter
>> a trade, I just assume I am the fool, so I am not surprised, if the
>> market gladly lets me know that fact... When I enter a trade I
>> assume that I am right, or why else would I even consider entering
>> the trade. In the last two/three years and
>> since october in particular, the fools were the sellers of tech,
>> buyers
>> of non tech. Surprising as it may seem to you, there was just as
>> much money to be made in the old horses as there was in those hi
>> tech wonders. That's maybe hard to swallow for some, but that's a
>> fact. It is not a fact, it is myopic thinking.
>> We shall see in six months who are the next fools, maybe the same,
>> maybe
>> the reverse, maybe both, or none... I don't know. All I can do is
>> trade
>> the trend and the breakouts, thats all my map is showing! That's the
>>
>> only way I know to reduce chances I am the fool... The foolish thing
>> to do is to trade breakouts, they are only profitable 38% of the
>> time+/-, and as far as the trend is concerned, you determine the
>> trend when you decide on the time frame you are going to trade. It
>> is your decisions that make you profitable, and not the market.
>> Ira.
>>
>> Gwenn
>>
>> Ira Tunik wrote:
>>
>> > The greater fool theory in full force. Ira
>> >
>> > wallst wrote:
>> >
>> >> One cant help but to be in aw of the strength of the Nasdaq. Its
>>
>> >> interesting to see how even though the Dow is well into a short
>> term
>> >> correction, the Nasdaq continues to climb even higher. So how
>> much
>> >> higher can it go before we see some kind of sell off?and if and
>> when
>> >> it does start to sell off, how will the market handle it? Over
>> the
>> >> last month or so I have observed what appears to be a pattern
>> that I
>> >> see on a daily basis. What that pattern is, is just before a
>> trend
>> >> reverses, I start to see the market oscillate with wider swings
>> >> showing a battle between the buyers and sellers. In other words
>> in
>> >> a climbing market, you will see the market pull back a little
>> harder
>> >> giving evidence that sellers are now comming into the market.
>> You
>> >> will also notice that on this last recent leg up, the market has
>> >> only barely broken through the previous high. I can not say
>> whether
>> >> or not these indications are signs that the nasdaq will drop. I
>> am
>> >> simply making observations as to the things I see. I also feel
>> that
>> >> there are many new people in the market who has not yet gone
>> through
>> >> a substantial correction. I know when I first started trading,
>> >> there were many no no's that I did until I got my hand spanked,
>> like
>> >> running stops and doubling up when I was wrong on a trade. The
>> true
>> >> fact here is even with the recent volatility, the nasdaq has yet
>> to
>> >> take out any support levels, which would suggest that the recent
>> >> selling that we have seen so far may only be a preview of things
>> to
>> >> come. But then again now when I think about it back in 92' I
>> >> remember client telling me he didnt want to buy any stock at that
>>
>> >> time because he felt the market was overbought. (At that time the
>>
>> >> dow was trading at 2800). Oh well. =) Troy Pwallst@xxxxxxxx
>> >
>
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