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<DIV><FONT size=2>One cant help but to be in aw of the strength of the
Nasdaq. Its interesting to see how even though the Dow is well into a
short term correction, the Nasdaq continues to climb even higher. So how
much higher can it go before we see some kind of sell off?and if and when it
does start to sell off, how will the market handle it?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Over the last month or so I have observed what appears to
be a pattern that I see on a daily basis. What that pattern is, is
just before a trend reverses, I start to see the market oscillate with wider
swings showing a battle between the buyers and sellers. In other words in
a climbing market, you will see the market pull back a little harder giving
evidence that sellers are now comming into the market. You will also
notice that on this last recent leg up, the market has only barely broken
through the previous high.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I can not say whether or not these indications are signs that
the nasdaq will drop. I am simply making observations as to the
things I see. I also feel that there are many new people in the market who
has not yet gone through a substantial correction. I know when I first
started trading, there were many no no's that I did until I got my hand spanked,
like running stops and doubling up when I was wrong on a trade. The true
fact here is even with the recent volatility, the nasdaq has yet to take out any
support levels, which would suggest that the recent selling that we have seen so
far may only be a preview of things to come. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>But then again now when I think about it back in 92' I
remember client telling me he didnt want to buy any stock at that time because
he felt the market was overbought. (At that time the dow was trading at
2800). Oh well. =)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Troy P</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>wallst@xxxxxxxx</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Feb 10 15:27:30 2000
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Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2000 17:27:35 -0600
From: Joe Frabosilio <joe6964@xxxxxxxx>
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Subject: [RT] Re: Short Term Pivot?
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Status:
Hi Stan,
In the beginning of this year I gave RT's a list of my change of trend dates.
Now this was the break down of 360. Some use 270. (Gann Stuff) When working
with this Feb had a change in trend almost everyday. So I omitted everything
except Feb 15. No speacial reason, I just like the date.
Using some very basic astrology, a full moon is on Feb 19. The full moon has a
change in trend effect on the market. Since the market has been in a downward
trend I'm looking for an short upward movement. Plus stocks move up when a
major holiday is coming up, in general terms. Presidents Day is on Feb 21.
Now lets use some Fib stuff, most people know 1.3.5.8. But most only use it for
a daily chart. To trade off of daily charts using this is worthless to me.
Look at months and years. March being #3 and combining the breakdown of 360.
Now you have your dates and trend.
Hope this helps,
Joe Frabosilio
Stan Book wrote:
> Joe,
>
> Very interesting! Could you give us a clue how you arrived at your
> projections?
>
> Here is my take - with gif. (This may be a duplicate post, the first attempt
> appears to be lost in limbo.)
>
> The market exhibits a fairly consistent 4 to 4 1/2 month cycle. Some cycle
> guys like to combine two of these into one 9 month cycle. I believe
> combining three 4 month cycles into one 12 month cycle fits the current
> market well. My view is that the present 4 month cycle represents the
> beginning of a new 12 month cycle. This 12 month cycle appears to be the
> third in a larger 4 year cycle. The low in this 4 year cycle should coincide
> with the low of the subsequent 12 month cycle.
>
> Each box on the attached gif identifies one 4 month cycle. The first three
> boxes show the previous 12 month cycle for context. The fourth box
> identifies the present 4 month cycle. This cycle should play itself out by
> the end of February. A low in around 10,500 would keep a neutral to bullish
> outlook in tact. A low around 10,000 would suggest a neutral to bearish
> outlook. March should see an advance in the DJIA as the new 4 month cycle
> takes hold.
>
> The blue box represents my best guess for the new 4 month cycle. This cycle
> should complete in early July. My bullish scenario calls for a high above
> 12,000 followed by a low around 11,000. My neutral scenario calls for a
> range between 11,300 and 10,500. My bearish scenario calls for a high around
> 11,000 followed by a low around 9,500. The crash scenario calls for a failed
> test of recent highs preceding a mad rush for the exit.
>
> I realize you will feel this far to nebulous be of much use. I do suggest
> the possibility for a low by the end of February, a rally into March (at the
> least), and a low early in July. I expect the new 4 month cycle to exhibit
> an 'M' pattern (similar to the first or third box in the gif.)
>
> This is NOT presented as a trading plan. It is presented as a context within
> which market action may be interpreted as it unfolds over the next several
> months.
>
> Stan
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
> > Behalf Of Joe Frabosilio
> > Sent: Thursday, February 10, 2000 8:57 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Cc: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [RT] Re: Short Term Pivot?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > > For the Market I'm bullish from Feb 15- 22, then looking for a
> > > sideways to downward movement. From March 1-15 again bullish, from
> > > March 15 to mid July bearish. Very bullish from July to December.
> >
> > Remember, the yeild on the S&P is suppose to be ~4.4% for the year.
> >
> > TradeWell,
> > Joe Frabosilio
> >
> >
>
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