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<P>S&P 500 wrote:
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<FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>Can
anyone really so me how you would use the Pythagorean Method to trade profitably????</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>I
am open to anything that works, but lets all take the next step and see
if it can be used to trade profitably.</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>Im
still waiting for someone to show me how to use ANY ASTRO method with a
good historical Track record.</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>Anyone
brave enough to take the challenge ???</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>Rob,</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1> Are you
new to this list? I have already done this about once or twice per year,
I post intra-day times for a change in trend for the S&P 500.
I asked the others to confirm, but my recollection is that over the years
that I have been on this list, about 75% would have been winning trades.
More fascinating to me than being able to</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>nail a turn in the SPOOS within
a few minutes is the fact that after I perform one of these amazing demonstrations,
I only get one or two who would like to investigate further. This
is human nature at its most</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>natural. You see, this
proves that 95% of the human race put their egos ahead of their wallets,
which is one of the reasons that 95% of futures traders are not profitable.
Why do I say that? One of the underlying themes to Astrology that
most people immediately sense is that Astrology implies that you do not
have total control over your life. Most people can not accept this. Of
course, logically, it is nonsense to think you do have total control over
your life. Your life is pre-determined by many forces and influences
over which you have no control</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>You have no control over who
your parents are, your socio-economic status as a child, your nationality,</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>the health of the economy,
the weather, etc. There is research that shows that animals respond
to the Moon, the Moon is what causes the tides, and short wave radio
and broadcast signals are effected by Solar storms that correlate with
planetary positions. Given that humans are animals made up of at
least 75% water functioning as an electro-chemical organism, it would only
be amazing if humans were not influenced by this forces. However,
humans do have their egos, so most choose to ignore any and all facts that
may challenge their little personal</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>paradigm.</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1> So, even if I
could post profitable turning points to the minute and well in advance,
as long as I told people</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Comic Sans MS"><FONT SIZE=-1>it was based on Astrology
I wouldn't have to worry </FONT></FONT>
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From: "JW" <JW@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: [RT] Byron Wien's 10 Surprises of 2000
Date: Thu, 6 Jan 2000 22:50:07 -0800
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Status:
>From TheStreet.com a few days ago
JW
--------
Byron Wien's 10 Surprises of 2000
Byron Wien, chief U.S. strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, favors
Wall Street each January with 10 big predictions for the year ahead.
This year's no different. A summary:
1. With the powerful pace of the U.S. and global economies boosting
demand for capital, the long Treasury's yield exceeds 7.5% and further
strains equity valuations.
2. Starting in the spring, the Fed embarks on a series of tightenings
that raise short-term rates more than 100 basis points by year-end. The
tightenings, combined with high valuations, spark a stock-market slide
that takes the S&P 500 down 25% and keeps it there for months.
3. The Democrats nominate Bill Bradley, the Republicans nominate John
McCain and Bradley wins. The Democrats achieve a majority in Congress.
4. Trouble for the Internet sector. Support for a national sales tax on
e-commerce transactions, allocated to the states, gains support in
Congress. Users complain of slow access speeds and disappointment with
e-tailer deliveries. Some Net content and retailing stocks fall 50%,
access providers drop 33% and PC and hardware companies with current
earnings lose 25%.
5. The price of crude oil moves above $30 a barrel and stays there.
OPEC is united by a focus on conflict between the deprived Islamic
world and the perceived exploitative West. Halliburton (HAL:NYSE),
Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE) and Smith International (SII:NYSE), among other
oil service stocks, rally. Elsewhere, Israel and Syria sign a peace
pact.
6. Hospital management companies bounce back from the doldrums.
Columbia HCA (COL:NYSE), Tenet Healthcare (THC:NYSE) and Health
Management Associates (HMA:NYSE) do especially well.
7. Europe's restructuring pays off: The European economy surges by 4%
in 2000, and the euro hits 1.25 to the dollar during the summer.
8. Restructuring backfires in Japan, and recession returns. The Nikkei,
now at 18,934, drops below 15,000. The yen weakens to 80 vs. the
dollar.
9. The Russell 2000 outperforms the S&P 500 by rising more at the
beginning of the year and falling less later. New leadership sectors
appear as commodity prices keep rising, and intermediate materials
stocks beat the indices. Active managers beat the S&P 500 for the
second year in a row.
10. There's reason for optimism on several secular trends, providing
the basis for new investment themes: a) The dangers of global warming
have been overstated; b) biotech breakthroughs will extend life
expectancy for those under 40 in developed countries by two years; and
c) computers and the Internet begin to revolutionize the classroom at
all levels.
Wien says his surprises generally are things to which the consensus
would assign a 1-in-3 probability, but that he sees as having a 50% or
better chance of occurring. He says more than half of the component
elements usually take place during the year.
A Look Back at Wien's 1999 Predictions
Here's a quick glance at Wien's scorecard on his 1999 outlook:
1. President Clinton, "increasingly isolated and despondent" despite
escaping with just a Senate censure, unexpectedly resigns (WRONG).
2. The S&P 500 rises by more than 20% in the first half of the year
(WRONG). Earnings for the S&P 500 gain more than 10% in 1999 despite
pressure on profit margins from a lack of pricing power and rising wage
costs (final figures aren't in yet, but almost certainly RIGHT).
3. Fears of deflation eventually give way to concerns of reflation
(RIGHT). With the global economy perceived to be on the mend by
midyear, commodity prices surge (RIGHT). GDP growth in the U.S. exceeds
consensus expectations for a fourth year in a row, moving back above 3%
in the second half (RIGHT). Long bond yields fall toward 4% early in
the year (WRONG) but then back up toward 6% by year-end (and go higher
still -- basically, RIGHT).
4. Small- and mid-cap stocks finally outperform and a majority of
active managers beat the S&P 500 for the first time since early in the
decade (RIGHT).
5. The European Monetary Union runs into serious trouble in its first
year because of fears of a European recession and a credit crunch. The
new European Central Bank is forced to ease aggressively as a response.
(WRONG.)
6. The U.S. suffers a balance-of-payments crisis (WRONG). The dollar
crashes, threatening 100 against the yen (RIGHT) and 1.35 against the
euro (WRONG).
7. The strength of the economy and the rise in commodity prices lead to
a surprising surge in the intermediate-materials stocks. DuPont
(DD:NYSE), Alcoa (AA:NYSE), Reynolds Metals (RLM:NYSE), Georgia-Pacific
(GP:NYSE), Willamette (WLL:NYSE) and Cyprus Amax (CYM:NYSE) are
outstanding performers (aside from Georgia-Pacific, pretty much RIGHT).
8. The global financial crisis is declared over, two years after it
began with the Thai devaluation in July 1997. Asia recovers without
help from the Japanese economy, and Latin America rallies after Brazil
avoids devaluation. Following a rough start, emerging-market equities
turn in an excellent year. (RIGHT.)
9. High-yield bonds and municipals prove to be a low-risk way to make
serious money. Spreads narrow because U.S. economic growth remains
moderate and fears of credit risk diminish. (WRONG.)
10. The year 2000 meltdown turns out to be a hoax. There are few
earnings hits, every plane flies and automatic teller machines deliver
cash on New Year's Day in the new millennium ("hoax" is overly strong,
but overall he's very much RIGHT).
Overall, giving half-right-half-wrong credit for mixed predictions,
Wien was more right than wrong about 1999, 5 1/2 to 4 1/2. Just as he
expected.
And looking at Wien's "also-ran" predictions for '99, he was right
about the Japanese recovery, the continued Internet-stock rally and,
just under the wire, Boris Yeltsin's resignation (although Wien had
Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov taking over, rather than Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin). He was wrong about Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) reaching a
settlement with the government, the pace of mergers dropping
significantly and Russia's being the best performer among emerging
markets.
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