[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

[RT] MKT: Market crash high possibility - reminder



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

<x-html><html><head></head><BODY bgcolor="#FFFFFF"><p><font size=2 color="#000000" face="Arial">On May 10th 1999 I posted a message which I post again below.<br>To summarize, I had mentioned that when the D.J. would hit between 11550 and 11600 a crash would then be trigerred. &nbsp;More specifically, I had mentioned 11569 and we have actually hit 11568.77.<br><br>This is just a reminder to possibly be cautious only if you feel like being so.<br><br>Here, below is transcript of that message posted in May:<br><br><br>My name is Jean Comeau from Quebec, Canada and I am a commodity trading<br>advisor (CTA) registered in Chicago. I have studied the stock market in a<br>technical way for over 25 years and with a detailed technical analysis<br>which follows, I have come to the conclusion that a stock market crash this<br>year (l999) is inevitable.<br><br>The Dow Jones Industrial average should hit 11550 to 11600 points on an<br>intraday basis and a crash will then be triggerred. Since we are almost<br>there, I took the liberty to write the following as to perhaps help others<br>to make a decision in regards to whether stay in or bail out of the market<br>before the iceberg is finally hit...<br><br>In order to understand more clearly the main core of the following<br>analysis, I shall begin by refering to pionners in terms of researches in<br>the technical analysis field.<br><br>ELLIOT (Wave Theory): a market trend usually moves in 5 waves UP and then<br>3 waves DOWN and so on...<br><br>FIBONNACCI (Perfect Numbers): .382 and .6l8 <br>1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-144 etc...<br>These numbers play a major role in technical analyses of any sort when it<br>comes to mathematical calculations.<br><br>W.D. GANN (Square Rule): Time and price (space) meet at a turning point or<br>as in this case the square root of 34 as it will be demonstrated.<br><br>Now, let us go back in l929 to possibly obtain a better comprehension of<br>the last major WAVES DOWN of the crash that occurred then and realise why<br>the enormous potential for it to repeat is just around the corner.<br><br>CRASH OF 1929 - 3 waves down<br><br>October 1929 = High or end of previous major 5 waves up = Dow touches 382<br>points or Fibonnacci .382<br><br>Then,<br><br>CRASH - Wave 1 = Within 2 months from the high (382), the Dow touches 200<br>for a total move down of 182 points.<br><br>CRASH - Wave 2 = Within the following 6 months, the market recovered to 290<br>or 90 points gain. Here, notice that half of the retracement is made back<br>up from the original 182 points down(wave 1).<br><br>CRASH - Wave 3 = Finally in June 1932 (after 34 months from the high), the<br>market touches the 43 points level and establish the end of the major bear<br>market.<br><br>NOTE: For any wave to be confirmed as fitting the picture, the market will<br>usually and normally retrace half of the last move either up or down from<br>the previous major low or high which it actually did in Crash - Wave 2.<br><br>NOW, ON THE WAY UP...<br><br>WAVE 1 = 1972 (last quarter) D.J. hits 1051<br><br>WAVE 2 = 1974 (last quarter) D.J. hits 577<br><br>In this case, the total move down is 474 points or half retracement from 43<br>(l932 low) to (l972 high) 105l.<br><br>WAVE 3 = 1987 (August) D.J. hits 2746 (intraday basis)<br><br>WAVE 4 = 1987 (October) D.J. hits 1616 (intraday basis)<br><br>In this case, the total move down is 1130 points or half retracement from<br>1974 low or 577 to high of 2746.<br><br>WAVE 5 = WHEN DOW JONES HITS 11550 TO 11600 POINTS. END OF MAJOR BULL<br>MARKET, PERIOD.<br><br>We achieve our goal by using Fibonnacci numbers as follows:<br><br>Wave 1 or l972 = Fibonnacci number 3 times 339 which is the total down move<br>of the last crash (1929) totals up to 1017 plus 43 (crash low) equals 1060<br>and the actual high in 1972 was 1051.<br><br>Wave 3 or 1987 = Fibonnacci number 8 times 339 equals 2712 plus 43 (crash<br>low) equals 2745 and the actual high in 1987 was 2746.<br><br>Wave 5 or l999 = Fibonnacci number 34 times 339 equals 11526 plus 43 (crash<br>low)<br>equals 11569. <br><br>Also note: W.D. Gann Square rule is now in full strength 34 times 340<br>(square root of 34) = 11560. Note that the number 339 was rounded up to<br>340. <br>When that number is hit, the 3 waves down will be in an effective mode. We<br>are to expect then that THE MARKET WILL DROP FROM 5500 to 6000 POINTS
within the following 2 months (half of retracement of full move from 43 to<br>11569) which will signal the very next GREAT GREAT DEPRESSION and a<br>rendez-vous with destiny and Y2K...<br><br>There are many more technical analyses that add up to similar results which<br>also reveal the exact same story. At this point, this present exercise<br>seemed to me more realistic for an immediate comprehension of the matter.<br><br>Ex: &nbsp;Twice 34 (Fibo) years from l932 to 2000<br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13 (Fibo) years from l974 leads us to l987 (Note: a cycle bottom to<br>top or top to<br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;bottom<br>usually repeats twice only<br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;when<br>properly measured.<br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;13 (Fibo) years from 1987 leads us to 2000...<br> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>I sincerely hope that this will help,<br><br>best regards to all,<br><br><br>Jean Comeau<br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br></p>
</font></body></html></x-html>From ???@??? Wed Jan 05 20:25:40 2000
Return-Path: <listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Received: from mail.thetrellis.net ([208.179.56.11])
	by purebytes.com (8.8.7/8.8.7) with SMTP id SAA15094
	for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Wed, 5 Jan 2000 18:28:32 -0800
Received: from REALTRADERS.COM
	([208.179.56.198])
	by mail.thetrellis.net; Wed, 05 Jan 2000 17:21:50 -0800
Received: from ohmaha.inetworld.net by realtraders.com
	with SMTP (MDaemon.v2.8.5.0.R)
	for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Wed, 05 Jan 2000 17:17:29 +0000
Received: from Brad (p3n207167114026.inetworld.net [207.167.114.26])
	by ohmaha.inetworld.net (8.9.3/8.9.3) with SMTP id RAA12887;
	Wed, 5 Jan 2000 17:19:14 -0800 (PST)
Date: Wed, 5 Jan 2000 17:19:14 -0800 (PST)
Message-Id: <200001060119.RAA12887@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
X-Sender: cycles@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 1.5.2
Mime-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
From: Brad Cowan <cycles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] RE: Cowan-Stewart Continued...
Cc: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, dgl@xxxxxxxxxx, andref@xxxxxxxxxxx
X-MDaemon-Deliver-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-Return-Path: cycles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-MDMailing-List: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
X-MDSend-Notifications-To: listmanager@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Reply-To: cycles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Status:   

Nice "info-mercial", Mr. Stewart. It's clear you are just using this forum
to try to sell your $4000 notebooks.

By the way, I'm still waiting for your answer to my question, "Why does
Baumring's wife 'need' the money from the notebooks?", as you told me??? You
responded by saying she had the "right". That was not the question.

About the pieces of Julius's notes that you posted, thanks for making my
point. That must have been the best you have to support your case or you
would have posted something better. As you recommended, I'll leave it to
those with my books to go ahead and look at your material (I know I'm doing
what you ultimately want, i.e., generate visits to your web site for sales.
But it's worth it.) and decide if Baumring was doing my planetary cycle
work. Or, if he ever calculated a PTV. You've got to be kidding!

Stewart said most of the Baumring students I've worked with are not his
"advanced" students. Then he goes on writing about Ruff.  To quote Ruff in a
letter to me, "I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate
yourself in the discovery in applying the Pythagorean Theorem in finding
your PTVs". The key word there is "discovery"......

I'm also happy to hear that Mr. Stewart has changed his mind about Ruff. It
sure is different than his opinion not long ago... And that he's changed his
opinion about traders. Quote from Stewart regarding Ruff/Pich follows...

"An interesting aside.  You have probably realized that Greg Ruff is behind
Pete Picks impropriety.  Pete on his own probably would not have had the
gall to directly take the idea from your book and put it in his program if
Greg had not backed him saying it was a common principle understood by
himself.  (Though I even wonder at this as someone mentioned that he also
now has a "Murrey Line" calculator in his program) Greg is a lawyer and
likes to find legal loopholes which allow him to violate other's rights.  I
have spent the last two months exchanging legal letters with him myself
protecting Wendy Baumring's rights to her husbands copyrighted works which
Greg has been illegally selling in violation of Federal Copyright Law, not
to mention any sense of integrity.  He is marketing himself using blatant
lies which a hundred people could disprove such as that he was Dr.
Baumring's "sole teaching assistant" at his seminars.    He is about to
release his course, and you better than most can understand what will happen
when his course becomes available to the public. He has backed down
regarding the marketing of Jerry's courses in the face of copyright law, and
I leave it to karma to handle his lack of integrity.  It was amusing that in
one of his letters to me deriding Jerry while trying to pirate his courses,
he mentions that even you are indebted to him(Greg) as you had returned to a
private teaching session with him to learn market application principles
which Jerry did not teach but he did, and which are now in your books.  I
know, I know...

It is for exactly all these reasons that I lost much of my interest in the
markets and have gone over to pure metaphysics and cosmology.  What
expectations can one have in an industry motivated by greed and egotism, I
prefer philosophers myself.  Anyway, if you come up with any alternative
marketing ideas, let me know I am always open to ideas.  In the mean time
you might send Marcus Sandstrom some of your material on your books as I
don't think what he found on the net is the best representation of your
work.

Warmest regards,

Brad"