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Jean,
Welcome back to hunting season <g>.
After some hesitation to restart a thread that elicited no response from
you - I decided that your silence to my many direct - and contrary -
questions re your May 10, 1999 crash alert was louder than words.
Either that, or I came across as being a fly-in-the-ointment nuisance to be
ignored.
Well, offended or not, you choose to maintain the fabrication of numbers to
suit your desired conclusions.
Not much has changed between May and January, I see... except that a large
part of the market is about 100% higher, and another large part is about 20%
higher.
Crash, up. As fellow RT Bob Roeske likes to say.
Now a 5% move since your Jan 5 00 email may not mean anything significant to
you, but it does mean a lot to us lesser mortals. Especially if it is in the
wrong direction. You see, these 5% swings add up. Enough of these 5% swings,
and a 6 sigma 50% crash becomes meaningless since one has already captured
that ROI trading within the 1 deviation moves and can afford to completely
sit out the 50% event.
Were you the one selling all that stuff to me this past week - just like you
probably did in May?
As I send this, we are dangerously close to (within 0.5%) of the 11550-600
zone. But I believe you prefer to be more accurate.
To wit, the following statement:
>mentioned that when the D.J. would hit between 11550 and 11600 a crash
would then be trigerred. More specifically, I had
>mentioned 11569 and we have actually hit 11568.77.
>This is just a reminder to possibly be cautious only if you feel like being
so.
Since this statement is new, I believe we will get no response to this email
either - since I "feel like not being so" -
So I thought I'd add to Ben and Earl's excellent - and consistent - breadth
analysis with some food for thought as you contemplate your alternatives
over the weekend:
a/ Money flow
Net new $1.33 billion flowed into the Dow 30 components (index of your
choice) today, within 1% of the Dow Crash trigger
Net new $3.48 billion flowed Into the SnP 500 components (in spite of $2.8
billion flowing out of LU.
Net new $1.09 billion flowed into the Nasdaq 100 components.
Net new $0.29 billion flowed into Russell 2000 components.
Net new $0.49 billion flowed into SnP 400 midcap index components.
Now I'll grant you that there may be the couple dozen names who find
themselves in 2 or more indices and we should depreciate these flows by
about half a billion.
Still... what's half a billion between friends, huh... esp US$...
b/ The financials and the utes turned one day before the bond market did.
c/ The utes and the trannies simultaneously bottomed within one day of the
financials+bonds tango.
d/ Crude Oil fell within one day of the utes and trannies bottoming.
Scroll back to October 1999, and a few assorted periods in history, and see
where the Dow is +3 months from such a specific set of events.
Different set of numbers, different set of conclusions.
I wonder if you will acknowledge this email if and when we print 11,601.
Or maybe, just maybe, 12,601. I'm sure multiplied by a certain Fibo number,
or a wave pattern extension, there is a factorial between the two 601's that
Levis could upgrade to.
But I say this not to disparage your tools - a lot of other listmembers
effectively use them, and I don't. But your statement brings into doubt all
the credibility of all these other fine traders - which is an undeserved
paint brush.
Doesn't matter, too, that you make a judgement call that went wrong. Happens
to me all the time.
What matters, though, is that this is twice in 1 year that you chose to
blatantly post something to public scrutiny using methods other reputable
traders do, and then whither away into hibernation only to resurface with
the same claim to gloom and doom.
I guess we had a lot to learn today when LU rallied 1% from composite close,
but its competitors rallied between 4% and 22%.
Guilt by association turned out to be the trade of the day. Not.
>From where I stand (maybe crawl = better term, for I simply follow the
money)... the bull is alive and well.
The pumping of five and a half Billion dollars in one single day within such
close proximity of a prior high is sign enough.
See you Monday, the other side of 601.
Gitanshu Buch
Long a whole bunch of stuff, incl indices. After all, today was a Friday in
a bull market - and I can't recall many bull market Fridays in the past 3
years that didn't close within 10% of their day's highs....
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