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On Jan 2, 3:09pm, Dennis Holverstott wrote:
>
> I'm sure nobody cares about my world view and there's nothing certain
> about it but I give the bull market in US stocks another 8-10 years with
> corrections and increasing volatility along the way. That's based on
> demographics and the baby boomer population bulge. IMHO, that stuff
> drives markets in the long term as much as central bank and government
> policy. Simple supply and demand. A similar study called the top in
> Japan pretty well and suggests they aren't out of the water yet.
Your position that the market will run another decade/so is shared
by Dent, and others as well, though they place The Top at 2007-8 or so
based upon the theory that the 50-somethings possess they major
buying power. I ran a study that shows that this conclusion is
not necessarily supported by the data. Here's a note that I posted
to the economic "long wave" list:
http://csf.colorado.edu/longwaves/dec99/msg01055.html
The home page for the site is:
http://csf.colorado.edu/longwaves/
The text is excerpted below:
"The maximum correlation occurs in a younger cohort age
group, ie, 25-36 than is typically discussed in demographic
studies. Dent arrives at an older 40-50 cohort whose
numbers peak out in 2007 or so.
Using the cyclic correlation methodology, note the strong
correlation to the 25-36 age group, and that the cohort's
numbers begin to drop off in 2001. Using the 25-36 cohort
as a baseline also pushes back the point at which the
population first began to pick up, 1978/so."
Two charts are included, and the orginal Excel spreadsheet
used to perform the calculations.
>
> > when the aged are on the streets begging for food and shelter, the riots
> > and crime waves rage, thousands of banks fold, and this nation is brought
> > to the brink of civil war over the economic collapse that is an absolute
> > certainty.
>
> Anyone who believes this should not be on a trading list.
Probably so. And most traders are going to let the price do the
talking, rather looking out ahed five to ten years.
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