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James:
I agree that this Bull market will end some day.
However, we could easily have a massive sideways correction like the 70's as
as opposed to a crash. I would argue this is the more likely scenario, since
the 29 crash was violently south (400 to 40 DJI) and Elliot wave theory would
say alternation is the more likely scenario. (a four wave in Elliot wave
theory, ie. triangle). A massive sideways correction would clobber buy and
hold and make savvy traders look like geniuses.
When will it end? I'm still playing the up side and it wouldn't be real
fruitful to play the downside right now although there are some traders
playing the short side and making out.
There are apparently some people using leaps to play the bubble (puts).
Nothing more absurd that going broke before the bubble bursts.
Japan's markets went from 38000 to 14000 roughly over several years. Did
they go to mountains with guns and beef jerky? Russia's market crashed a
while back and they seem to be still growing. Yes they do have some violence
going on. So even if our markets crashed, what leads to the certain
conclusion of social chaos? Some countries had chaos and some didn't. Japan
may have started a giant wave 4 triangle. If not, they should set a new high
in the next few years. (I don't see many elliot wavers trying to model the
Japanese market, which would be very interesting, ie a leading indicator for
US markets?)
Looking at M2, you can see that Greenspan has pumped massive money into the
system. Obviously, this is been positive for the US markets. But this has
been going on well before Greenspan. Volker tamed inflation, but his
predecessors created it. What makes a person think that this couldn't be
tamed again, similar to the 80's.
The bulge in the population ie. baby boom has had its impact. The bust
followed by the mini boom is coming, which could gyrate the markets.
Volatility creates opportunity. This is nothing new. Dropping out of
society simply means you won't capitalize on the opportunities.
Obviously, moving from the industrial age to the information age, will cause
lots of volatility. Look what happened when we moved from the agriculture
age to the industrial age. Volatility. (Buy US Steel and sell the farm)
(Now its buy Ebay, short JC Penney?)
Remember, a bear doesn't necessarily destroy money, it mostly just tranfers
hands!
Kevin Campbell
In a message dated 1/1/00 3:02:56 PM Central Standard Time,
jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
> You will need the ammo when this massive US market bubble breaks, tens of
> millions are unemployed and homeless, and the crime wave spreads like wild
> fire.
>
> If you think I'm exagerating, read what other countries have experienced
> since their markets tanked and the economies sent into deep recession.
>
> http://www.advsoftware.com/content/crime.htm
>
> ---------------
> At 11:09 AM 1/1/00 -0800, JERRY AND CORA ROSS wrote:
> >Hi To All
> >Well it came with very few problems. My preparations -- a little extra
> >cash and some extra water and food fortunately was not needed. I
> >probably am a little disappointed in that I expected a few more problems
> >than the news media reported. My computer seems to be working fine. I
> >hope yours is too.
> >
> >Jerry R
> >
> >ps what do you do with a thousand rounds of ammunition?
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >.oİş°¨¨°şİ>>[ JERRY ROSS ]<<İş°¨¨°şİo.
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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