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I was going to do a point-by-point rebuttal of James' naive
socio-economic theories but I decided it's a waste of my time. You can't
argue with a true believer. I'll just make a couple of quick
observations and then quit posting on the subject.
I'm sure nobody cares about my world view and there's nothing certain
about it but I give the bull market in US stocks another 8-10 years with
corrections and increasing volatility along the way. That's based on
demographics and the baby boomer population bulge. IMHO, that stuff
drives markets in the long term as much as central bank and government
policy. Simple supply and demand. A similar study called the top in
Japan pretty well and suggests they aren't out of the water yet.
Japan did not suffer massive social upheaval after their top. The
countries where you see blood running in the streets after a crash are
those that have the most opaque and corrupt financial institutions. The
US financial institutions, while not nominees for sainthood, are orders
of magnitude more transparent and stable than those in Russia, Indonesia
or even Korea.
But, then again, I could be wrong.
> when the aged are on the streets begging for food and shelter, the riots
> and crime waves rage, thousands of banks fold, and this nation is brought
> to the brink of civil war over the economic collapse that is an absolute
> certainty.
Anyone who believes this should not be on a trading list. Obviously, if
"thousands of banks" are going to fail, the brokers will fail right
along with them. So, the believers should pull all their money out of
banks and brokerage accounts. No brokerage account, you can't trade....
not that I think James does or ever has. He sounds more like a smart-ass
undergrad than a trader to me. You know the type.... they think they
have all the answers when they haven't been around long enough to have
heard all the questions. In this business, anytime you hear the words
"absolute certainty," run, don't walk, the other way.
Not-about-to-move-into-a-cave-ly,
Dennis
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