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Who said anything about dropping out of society or hiding in a cave,
certainly not I. A bubble of this magnitude only comes around once in a
hundred years, the opportunities to get wildly rich from its collapse are
plenty.
A spike in crime is not equivalent to a complete upheaval of the populace.
I do not think that will happen. There will likely be mass demonstrations
like there were when Reagan took office, back in 1992 as thousands of
unemployed workers marched to protest. I do believe that the citizens of
the US are the same as the citizens of South Korea, Japan, and Brazil. If
they are fired en masse from their jobs, lose their homes, and there is
little to no opportunity to earn a living -- many will turn to crime.
History proves this. Recent history I might add. I believe that the
Federal Government is already anticipating such events based on some of
their past legislation: severe limitations on Habius Corpus (to speed up
death penalty executions -- eliminating Federal Court review of State
cases), and severe cut backs in welfare programs, and a boom in the prison
business.
The goal of even mentioning the bust & likely aftermath was to temper the
wild-eyed, giddy, unfounded optimism for this bubble. I believe the market
mania has severely hurt this country in a multitude of ways. It may be
years (if ever) before the truth is ever told to the US citizens on how
fiscal mismanagement (Greenspan) and rampant unchecked government spending
(Reagan/Bush) got us in this mess.
Meanwhile we hear nonsense lines from clueless folks like Mr. Holverstott
"James likes to paint Alan Greenspan as the Great Satan. While I don't
think he's God, I think he's done a pretty good job. We've had good
growth in the economy and inflation has stayed under control. That's about
the best you can expect from a central bank."
One confidence is lost in the ol' Greenback, the party will get started.
Notice the high correlation of the US Dollar with the Dow and S&P. When
the market bubbles burst -- so should the dollar.
James
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At 10:54 AM 1/2/00 EST, you wrote:
>James:
>
>I agree that this Bull market will end some day.
>
>However, we could easily have a massive sideways correction like the 70's as
>as opposed to a crash. I would argue this is the more likely scenario,
since
>the 29 crash was violently south (400 to 40 DJI) and Elliot wave theory
would
>say alternation is the more likely scenario. (a four wave in Elliot wave
>theory, ie. triangle). A massive sideways correction would clobber buy and
>hold and make savvy traders look like geniuses.
>
>When will it end? I'm still playing the up side and it wouldn't be real
>fruitful to play the downside right now although there are some traders
>playing the short side and making out.
>
>There are apparently some people using leaps to play the bubble (puts).
>Nothing more absurd that going broke before the bubble bursts.
>
>Japan's markets went from 38000 to 14000 roughly over several years. Did
>they go to mountains with guns and beef jerky? Russia's market crashed a
>while back and they seem to be still growing. Yes they do have some
violence
>going on. So even if our markets crashed, what leads to the certain
>conclusion of social chaos? Some countries had chaos and some didn't.
Japan
>may have started a giant wave 4 triangle. If not, they should set a new
high
>in the next few years. (I don't see many elliot wavers trying to model the
>Japanese market, which would be very interesting, ie a leading indicator
for
>US markets?)
>
>Looking at M2, you can see that Greenspan has pumped massive money into the
>system. Obviously, this is been positive for the US markets. But this has
>been going on well before Greenspan. Volker tamed inflation, but his
>predecessors created it. What makes a person think that this couldn't be
>tamed again, similar to the 80's.
>
>The bulge in the population ie. baby boom has had its impact. The bust
>followed by the mini boom is coming, which could gyrate the markets.
>
>Volatility creates opportunity. This is nothing new. Dropping out of
>society simply means you won't capitalize on the opportunities.
>
>Obviously, moving from the industrial age to the information age, will cause
>lots of volatility. Look what happened when we moved from the agriculture
>age to the industrial age. Volatility. (Buy US Steel and sell the farm)
>(Now its buy Ebay, short JC Penney?)
>
>Remember, a bear doesn't necessarily destroy money, it mostly just tranfers
>hands!
>
>Kevin Campbell
>
>
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>
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>
>In a message dated 1/1/00 3:02:56 PM Central Standard Time,
>jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
>
>> You will need the ammo when this massive US market bubble breaks, tens of
>> millions are unemployed and homeless, and the crime wave spreads like wild
>> fire.
>>
>> If you think I'm exagerating, read what other countries have experienced
>> since their markets tanked and the economies sent into deep recession.
>>
>> http://www.advsoftware.com/content/crime.htm
>>
>> ---------------
>> At 11:09 AM 1/1/00 -0800, JERRY AND CORA ROSS wrote:
>> >Hi To All
>> >Well it came with very few problems. My preparations -- a little extra
>> >cash and some extra water and food fortunately was not needed. I
>> >probably am a little disappointed in that I expected a few more problems
>> >than the news media reported. My computer seems to be working fine. I
>> >hope yours is too.
>> >
>> >Jerry R
>> >
>> >ps what do you do with a thousand rounds of ammunition?
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >.oİş°¨¨°şİ>>[ JERRY ROSS ]<<İş°¨¨°şİo.
>> >
>> >
>> >
>>
>>
>>
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