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Jim,
<BR> It is now 9 days past your major pivot date
of Dec..14. Is that enough time to decide if this date was of any
significance? Was it a high, low, or indeterminate?
<P>Retrospectively,
<P>Norman
<P>Subject: [RT] DOW Forecast {01}
<BR> Date: Sun, 5 Dec 1999 21:34:31 -0800
<BR> From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
<BR> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
<BR>
<P>Jim White wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE><STYLE></STYLE>
<FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>The
post below was sent with attachment, however it did not get through. For
those interested, email me and I'll try to send the attachment individually.</FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>Jim</FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>My
work in forecasting significant pivots in the DJIA suggests the next significant
pivot will be 12/14. The last significant pivot was the 10/18 low. So far
in 1999 I have forecast 17 out of 17 significant pivots. Since I believe
current scenarios are more a function of current movements than those in
the distant past (August 97 - Feb. 98) according to my near impulse theory,
I submit the following alternate analysis for consideration.</FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>(1)
The extent of an impulse move can be estimated as a fib. expansion of the
last wave of the topping or bottoming pattern. According to Tony Plummer
the "natural" expectation is 2.618 with an outer limit of 4.236. The extent
of a price trend can also be forecast as fib. expansions of the retracement
moves. Using these rules it is shown on the attached figure ( double click
the hotmail icon to open) that the extent of the move down from the 8/24
high was forecast at the 2.618 levels as shown.</FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>(2)
The extent of the trend move up from the 10/18 low is forecast to be 11954
(2.618 level) based on the strength of the last wave down (10/11 high to
10/18 low)</FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>(3)
The first retracement of the uptrend (10/22 high to 10/27 low) suggests
the top of the trend move at 11318 (4.236 level) or approximately where
we are now. This level, as a <U>temporary top</U>, is supported by the
2.618 expansion (11,348) of the second retracement (11/5 high to 11/12
low). However the ultimate top suggested by this move is 11,847 at the
4.236 level and agrees with the forecast described in (2) above.</FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>(4)
The third retracement (11/22 high to 12/1 low) suggests a natural top at
the 2.618 level 0f 11,948.</FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>(5)
The current uptrend move from the 10/18 low is 98% of the down trend from
8/24 to 10/18. This suggests that this move is an <U>initial wave </U>up
of a new longer trend . Achieving sustained prices above the 8/24 high
will confirm this .</FONT></FONT> <FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>In
summary there is evidence that this move up could incur significant resistance
at the current levels due to (a) the resistance of the 8/24 top, (b) the
fib. expansions of the previous retracements. However, there is also evidence
to support an expectation of only a minor retracement from here and then
a continued move up to the 11,800 - 12.00 level by 12/14.</FONT></FONT><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>Jim
White</FONT></FONT>
<BR><FONT FACE="Arial"><FONT SIZE=-1>PIVOT Research & Trading Inc.</FONT></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Dec 23 22:06:52 1999
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From: "Dr. John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] [realtraders] S&P and Nasdaq S/R for 12/27/99
Date: Thu, 23 Dec 1999 21:58:44 EST
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Status:
>>The S&P closed at 1480.4 vs. 3644 for the Nasdaq.Numbers for
>>both appear acceptable given breakout.
>>By request:
>>S&P
>>
>>Level 3 R=1497.6....S=1463.2...Drop dead Sell and Buy points.
>>
>>Level 2 R=1489.8....S=1471.0....Stop loss points or reversal if strong
>>break
>>
>>Level 1 R=1485.1....S=1475.7....Sell and Buy stop points
>>
>>I believe the ideal opening trading range to be 1475.7 to
>>1489.8.
>>>>Nasdaq
>>>>
>>>>Level 3 R=3699............S=3589......Same descripton.
>>>>
>>>>Level 2 R=3674............S=3614......Ditto
>>>>
>>>>Level 1 R=3659............S=3629......Ditto
>
>>DESCRIPTION:Level 3 are points if reached have a high probabiltity for
>>profit if sold at R or Bought at S. Level 2 are stop loss points if you
>>enter at level 1.They are also breakout points if penetrated.Level 1
>>assuming we openin the range are buy and sell points.If out of the range
>>no trade.
>>
>>John
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