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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The post I made on 12/5, referenced below by
Norman, suggested that the 12/14 forecast date could have been a significant
high with DJIA peaking between 11800 and 12000. This date, 12/14, was the 41st
of 42 forecasted pivot points for the DOW that have been posted in advance to
this list. I am putting the finishing touches on a Research Report which
discusses each of these dates and summarizes their significance and the
reliability of the methodology used to make them. This report will be available
on my web site (pivottrader.com) just as soon as I have it up and running. I
will try to post it to this list when it is finished.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Now - what about the forecast. It is obvious that
the later part of December has been a very difficult time to forecast. My
commentary suggested the market would have significant trouble breaking through
the resistance of the 8/24 high and so it did. My forecasted high of 12/14 was
confirmed as the 12/17 high which failed to break through the 8/24 price levels.
It was not, therefore, the significant high I had expected.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The market has since moved down and put in a low on
12/21, one day before my forecasted pivot of 12/22. Will this be the significant
low before the current advance tops out near 12000? Perhaps - today we closed
above the 8/24 high. If the Santa Claus rally continues next week we could
easily reach the projected levels by year end and around my first pivot point
of 2000, 1/3. So, we shall see.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This only provides more substantiation to my
hypothesis that one can only forecast reliably in the short term .</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jim White</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Pivot Research & Trading</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>nwinski</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Cc:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, December 23, 1999 4:09
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [RT] Re: Jim White DOW Forecast
</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV> Jim, <BR> It is now 9 days past
your major pivot date of Dec..14. Is that enough time to decide if this
date was of any significance? Was it a high, low, or indeterminate?
<P>Retrospectively,
<P>Norman
<P>Subject: [RT] DOW Forecast {01} <BR>
Date: Sun, 5 Dec 1999 21:34:31 -0800 <BR>
From: "Jim White" <<A
href="mailto:jwhite43@xxxxxxx";>jwhite43@xxxxxxx</A>>
<BR> To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>>
<BR>
<P>Jim White wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE="CITE">
<STYLE></STYLE>
<FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>The post below was sent with attachment,
however it did not get through. For those interested, email me and I'll try
to send the attachment individually.</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT
size=-1>Jim</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>My work in
forecasting significant pivots in the DJIA suggests the next significant
pivot will be 12/14. The last significant pivot was the 10/18 low. So far in
1999 I have forecast 17 out of 17 significant pivots. Since I believe
current scenarios are more a function of current movements than those in the
distant past (August 97 - Feb. 98) according to my near impulse theory, I
submit the following alternate analysis for
consideration.</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT
size=-1>(1) The extent of an impulse move can be estimated
as a fib. expansion of the last wave of the topping or bottoming pattern.
According to Tony Plummer the "natural" expectation is 2.618 with an outer
limit of 4.236. The extent of a price trend can also be forecast as fib.
expansions of the retracement moves. Using these rules it is shown on the
attached figure ( double click the hotmail icon to open) that the extent of
the move down from the 8/24 high was forecast at the 2.618 levels as
shown.</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>(2) The
extent of the trend move up from the 10/18 low is forecast to be 11954
(2.618 level) based on the strength of the last wave down (10/11 high to
10/18 low)</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>(3)
The first retracement of the uptrend (10/22 high to 10/27 low) suggests the
top of the trend move at 11318 (4.236 level) or approximately where we are
now. This level, as a <U>temporary top</U>, is supported by the 2.618
expansion (11,348) of the second retracement (11/5 high to 11/12 low).
However the ultimate top suggested by this move is 11,847 at the 4.236 level
and agrees with the forecast described in (2) above.</FONT></FONT><FONT
face=Arial><FONT size=-1>(4) The third retracement (11/22
high to 12/1 low) suggests a natural top at the 2.618 level 0f
11,948.</FONT></FONT><FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>(5)
The current uptrend move from the 10/18 low is 98% of the down trend from
8/24 to 10/18. This suggests that this move is an <U>initial wave </U>up of
a new longer trend . Achieving sustained prices above the 8/24 high will
confirm this .</FONT></FONT> <FONT face=Arial><FONT size=-1>In summary
there is evidence that this move up could incur significant resistance at
the current levels due to (a) the resistance of the 8/24 top, (b) the fib.
expansions of the previous retracements. However, there is also evidence to
support an expectation of only a minor retracement from here and then a
continued move up to the 11,800 - 12.00 level by 12/14.</FONT></FONT><FONT
face=Arial><FONT size=-1>Jim White</FONT></FONT> <BR><FONT face=Arial><FONT
size=-1>PIVOT Research & Trading
Inc.</FONT></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Dec 24 13:27:37 1999
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From: "Brent" <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>"
<jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <19991224052419.59805.qmail@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Re: Option update
Date: Fri, 24 Dec 1999 10:55:13 -0700
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Status:
Right, have been there (meaning, to the place where it is difficult to put
on certain option trades). Reportedly, many option trades are possible only
for
pit traders.
Merry Christmas for all of you that do Christmas. Also a wish for all of us
to have a good New Year/Century.
Brent
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dr. John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, December 23, 1999 10:24 PM
Subject: [RT] Option update
> FYI-I was unable to get this trade on even trying the dangerous legging in
> method.Just too volatile.
>
> john
>
>
> >From: "Dr. John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Reply-To: jvc689@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: [RT] Option update
> >Date: Mon, 20 Dec 1999 13:27:36 EST
> >
> >For those with an interest:
> >
> >OPTION TRADES DEC/JAN TRADE
> >
> >For those of you that want to do the trade uncovered we are Selling 1340
> >Puts and 1550 Calls. The put premium is much higher that the calls the
> >1340
> >puts are @ 10.00 and the 1550 Calls are only worth 2.50.
> >
> >For the majority of us that do the spreads covered the spread will be
> >Selling 1525 Calls @ around 5.80 and Buying 1535 Calls @ around 2.80 or
> >less. For the Puts lets Sell 1340 Puts @ around 10.00 and Buy 1330 puts
@
> >around 6.50. This will give us a spread of around 6.50 or $1625 with a
max
> >loss of $875.00.
> >
> >Last month only the covered put was put on at a profit.
> >
> >John
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >______________________________________________________
> >Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
> >
> >
>
> ______________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
>
>
>
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