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<font size=3>Realtraders,<br>
<br>
I am forwarding Jim White's graph which corresponds to his earlier
forecast.<br>
<br>
Hope this helps,<br>
John Boggio<br>
<br>
<br>
At 09:34 PM 12/5/99 -0800, Jim White wrote:<br>
</font><font face="arial" size=2><blockquote type=cite cite>The post
below was sent with attachment, however it did not get through. For those
interested, email me and I'll try to send the attachment
individually.<br>
Jim<br>
My work in forecasting significant pivots in the DJIA suggests the next
significant pivot will be 12/14. The last significant pivot was the 10/18
low. So far in 1999 I have forecast 17 out of 17 significant pivots.
Since I believe current scenarios are more a function of current
movements than those in the distant past (August 97 - Feb. 98) according
to my near impulse theory, I submit the following alternate analysis for
consideration.<br>
(1) The extent of an impulse move can be estimated as a
fib. expansion of the last wave of the topping or bottoming pattern.
According to Tony Plummer the "natural" expectation is 2.618
with an outer limit of 4.236. The extent of a price trend can also be
forecast as fib. expansions of the retracement moves. Using these rules
it is shown on the attached figure ( double click the hotmail icon to
open) that the extent of the move down from the 8/24 high was forecast at
the 2.618 levels as shown.<br>
(2) The extent of the trend move up from the 10/18 low
is forecast to be 11954 (2.618 level) based on the strength of the last
wave down (10/11 high to 10/18 low)<br>
(3) The first retracement of the uptrend (10/22 high to
10/27 low) suggests the top of the trend move at 11318 (4.236 level) or
approximately where we are now. This level, as a <u>temporary top</u>, is
supported by the 2.618 expansion (11,348) of the second retracement (11/5
high to 11/12 low). However the ultimate top suggested by this move is
11,847 at the 4.236 level and agrees with the forecast described in (2)
above.<br>
(4) The third retracement (11/22 high to 12/1 low)
suggests a natural top at the 2.618 level 0f 11,948.<br>
(5) The current uptrend move from the 10/18 low is 98%
of the down trend from 8/24 to 10/18. This suggests that this move is an
<u>initial wave </u>up of a new longer trend . Achieving sustained prices
above the 8/24 high will confirm this .<br>
<br>
In summary there is evidence that this move up could incur significant
resistance at the current levels due to (a) the resistance of the 8/24
top, (b) the fib. expansions of the previous retracements. However, there
is also evidence to support an expectation of only a minor retracement
from here and then a continued move up to the 11,800 - 12.00 level by
12/14. <br>
Jim White<br>
PIVOT Research & Trading Inc.</font></blockquote></html>
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