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It says in this post you are using a swing trading method. I have been using
the Gann swing trading method for entry and exit, see TASC oct. 1999 or
www.traders.com. I like the system a lot. have you looked at it and how does
it compare to the method you are using?
>From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
>Date: Thu, 7 Oct 1999 07:12:17 -0600
>
>While swing trading is not my style, you are obviously having considerable
>success with the grains - congratulations on a good set of trades. My
>overall evaluation of the grains is confused which means it's probably
>great for swing traders. I think we may be putting in a bottom and I think
>beans look like the best of the lot but I just don't see the clues which
>tell me that a bottom is in place nor do I feel this is the time to go
>short. In a nutshell, I want to go bottom fish but won't. The last time I
>let bottom fishing get in the way of my common sense was a long cotton
>trade of a couple of weeks ago which went my way and then quickly
>deteriorated - I was fortunate to escape with a small loss attributable due
>to slippage typical of NY markets. I feel that trades are always to be
>found but the really good trades require patience - see my comments
>regarding sugar for the kind of setups I like.
>
>Earl
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Steve Karnish
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx ; Earl Adamy ; List
> Sent: Wednesday, October 06, 1999 1:45 PM
> Subject: Re: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
>
>
> Earl,
>
> Attached is a graphic representation of my last five wheat trades and my
>current open position. Looking at these positions you can see that in each
>case, there was a strong market move the day before my position was taken
>(circled in beautiful "magenta"). Every trade was proceeded by market
>movement that was contrary to the position taken the following day. So I
>might ask, "Why wouldn't you want a weak close to trigger a long in wheat"?
>
> I'm a mechanical swing trader who relies on momentum oscillators and
>fibonacci retracements. This year the mechanical approach (for wheat) has
>triggered 27 trades (approximately one trade every seven trading days).
>It's traded 20 times successfully, and has posted 6 losses. The "possible
>5th wave scenario" and deciding whether a patterns are "terribly bullish"
>vs. "somewhat bullish" are subjective interpretations of subjective
>technical approaches. Nothing wrong with most of the technical
>disciplines...I'm a student/teacher/cheerleader of many.
>
> In any event, I no longer ponder the completion of the fifth wave or
>whether the stochastic is going trying double back and produce a "failure
>swing". I certainly don't care about crop conditions, exports, carry
>over, etc. Within each technical discipline there is lots of room for
>subjective opinion. Fundamentals were invented to create a "fog" in the
>traders mind. Some may feel wonderful about the daily challenge of
>applying subjective technical analysis to the markets...I gave it up a long
>time ago and sleep better since that time. Some may feel that fundamentals
>are important (good luck my little sheep).
>
> When the market bottoms and the fifth wave is completed, I hope to be
>aboard (on the long side) so that the "Elliot Wavers" will provide upside
>momentum. As we carry off the "bottom", I will immediately be targeting my
>next short position. Whatever tomorrow brings, I can assure you only one
>thing: I will trade the market mechanically.
>
> Earl, please keep us posted to your decisions in the grain markets.
>Your astute comments are always interesting.
>
> Steve Karnish
> Cedar Creek Trading
> Featuring: "Cybercast"
> http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Earl Adamy
> To: List
> Sent: Wednesday, October 06, 1999 10:27 AM
> Subject: Re: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
>
>
> I've been monitoring grains for a possible long position. I'm curious
>as to why you would want a weak close to trigger long in wheat and corn?
>Corn appears to have completed a possible 5th wave decline with two closes
>under the 78% retracement which isn't terribly bullish. Of particular note
>in corn is what (so far anyway) is a very tight double inside day setup.
>Beans have a clearer wave structure however the 5th wave appears to be
>incomplete. Meal is interesting looking. Can't make up my mind about wheat.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Steve Karnish
> To: List ; metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Wednesday, October 06, 1999 10:22 AM
> Subject: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
>
>
> List,
>
> From time to time, traders actually discuss "real" trades on this
>forum (the current sugar debate). This is a really great "idea" that
>should be explored on a daily basis. Think of it: a place where
>"realtraders" can exchange "real trading" ideas. It's a concept that
>could catch on.
>
> For those who monitor real trades in the grain market:
>
> 9/29: Went short: corn (214.75), oats (116.00), & wheat (286.50);
>(December contracts)
>
> 10/6: Covered and went long oats (110.50)
>
> 10/7: A close below 203 in Dec. corn and 262.25 in Dec. wheat
>triggers long positions tomorrow.
>
> This has little to do with the crash of '29, Alan Green"spun", or
>all those "politicos" conspiring to make my life miserable in the gold
>market. But, guess what? Real people are in these real trades, making
>real money, not letting the "news" influence their approach, and they are
>certainly not sitting around theorizing about the rise and fall of US
>economy.
>
> Steve Karnish
> Cedar Creek Trading
> http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/
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