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<DIV><FONT face=Arial>While not strictly trading related, there seems to be some
interest in the topic, so my apologies if you find no value in
this...</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>If you're able to separate his advice on asset protection
from his consistently incorrect calls for an imminent market crash, you may
find Robert Prechter's book useful. <U>At the Crest of the Tidal Wave </U>is the
name of the book.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>If you believe his analysis will eventually be proven
correct, you may begin to suffer from the symptoms of manic depression... I
admire his ability to weather the criticism after each new call of a final top,
but I hope he's wrong for at least the rest of his life, if not for
eternity.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>----- Original Message -----
</STRONG></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>From: Gary Fritz <<A
href="mailto:fritz@xxxxxxxx";>fritz@xxxxxxxx</A>></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx</A>></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Sent: Wednesday, October 06, 1999 12:56
PM</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>Subject: Re: How to protect
assets</STRONG></FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><STRONG>> Earl wrote:<BR>> > I
have studied this off and on in some detail over the past few<BR>> > years
and my most educated conclusion is that intermediate to long<BR>> > term
US treasuries should provide the greatest safety and highest<BR>> >
return. <BR>> <BR>> I didn't expect that answer AT ALL. So you feel
the rates are likely <BR>> to go way down, thus increasing value of the
bonds? And you expect <BR>> that increase to outweigh the losses to
inflation or other attacks on <BR>> the dollar's value?<BR>> <BR>> I
don't know what to expect on this. Rates up or down, inflation or <BR>>
deflation, I really don't have a good feel for which way it is likely <BR>>
to go when everything goes boom. I wish I understood the mechanics
<BR>> better. This is one time when this technical trader wishes he had
a <BR>> better fundamental background.<BR>> <BR>> "BruceB" <<A
href="mailto:bruceb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>bruceb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A>> wrote:<BR>>
> Just keep in mind that in both the 30's and in Japan it was<BR>> >
nominal rates that fell. You might want to take into account what<BR>>
> real rates did during those periods in making your decision... <BR>>
<BR>> I assume by this you mean that inflation sapped any gains? Would
you <BR>> expand on your answer, please?<BR>> <BR>> I think this topic
concerns all of us, and I'm very interested in <BR>> pursuing the thread
further. Private emails from others indicate I'm <BR>> not the only
one. I hope anyone else who feels they have a good <BR>> handle on the
likely scenarios and/or the best financial survival <BR>> plans will share it
with us. Thanks!<BR>> <BR>> Gary<BR>>
</STRONG></FONT></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Oct 06 14:42:34 1999
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Message-ID: <000a01bf103c$c02b2b40$a7bc3fd1@xxxxxxxxxx>
From: "Terry S. Smith" <tesla@xxxxxxx>
To: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>, "List" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>,
<metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <001901bf1017$0ab52880$f731bccc@xxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 1999 13:52:43 -0700
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<DIV><FONT size=2>Talking about real trades here is one I am putting on
beginning this week. I have begun scaling into the wheat market. It looks like
the grains are heading for a double bottom and may take out contract lows.
I am buying the March 320 calls on every 10 cent decline in the wheat market
beginning at 280. Buying equal amounts at 280, 270, 260. It has been my
experience that when markets RE-TEST multi-year lows, that is the time to
buy them. Since I have no idea where the grains will eventually bottom I will
scale into the trade. Happy trading. </FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Steve
Karnish</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>List</A>
; <A href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999 9:22
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> In lieu of crash(trash)
talk</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>List,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>From time to time, traders actually discuss
"real" trades on this forum (the current sugar debate). This is a really
great "idea" that should be explored on a daily basis. Think of
it: a place where "realtraders" can exchange "real trading"
ideas. It's a concept that could catch on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For those who monitor real trades in the grain
market:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>9/29: Went short: corn (214.75), oats
(116.00), & wheat (286.50); (December contracts)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/6: Covered and went long oats
(110.50)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/7: A close below 203 in Dec. corn and
262.25 in Dec. wheat triggers long positions tomorrow.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This has little to do with the crash of '29, Alan
Green"spun", or all those "politicos" conspiring to make my life miserable in
the gold market. But, guess what? Real people are in these real
trades, making real money, not letting the "news" influence their approach,
and they are certainly not sitting around theorizing about the rise and fall
of US economy. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Steve Karnish<BR>Cedar Creek Trading<BR><A
href="http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/";>http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/</A></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Oct 06 15:10:12 1999
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From: "t-bondtrader" <t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: December Bonds
Date: Wed, 6 Oct 1999 22:06:21 +0100
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It is rare if not unique for me to make predictions on the market, but as I
am away from the office all tomorrow, I thought I would put forward a
thought for those who day trade (or perhaps even very short-term position
trade) the bonds.
Today, the market has ended as a doji and with yesterday being a big down
day, this leaves the possibility that tomorrow will be an up day - thus
completing what I call a Doji Sandwich. This would be a strong reversal
pattern, but since it incorporates the Contract Low, it could lead to a good
up move of a few days. The natural target would be around 115 and the
northerly trend line, before descending again.
On the other hand, if tomorrow is a solid down day, it would be a
continuation pattern, which, since it will result in breaching the Contract
Low could be a decent move down - even the break out of the near wedge that
has been building since the end of June. Since the record high of early
October last year, each leg down from a sideways congestion has been
substantial. Breaking out of a wedge could herald quite a decent move.
Since Today has also caused an Inside Day, if the high is broken (thus
setting up a DS) there could be quite a few ticks in the move. If it
breaks the low, a similar standing of down move could occur. If we have
another low range day, personally I won't be disappointed because I won't be
trading. But the following day...
Hope this gives some people food for thought...
Bill Eykyn
www.t-bondtrader.com
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