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<DIV><FONT size=2>While swing trading is not my style, you are obviously having
considerable success with the grains - congratulations on a good set of
trades. My overall evaluation of the grains is confused which means it's
probably great for swing traders. I think we may be putting in a bottom and I
think beans look like the best of the lot but I just don't see the clues which
tell me that a bottom is in place nor do I feel this is the time to go short. In
a nutshell, I want to go bottom fish but won't. The last time I let bottom
fishing get in the way of my common sense was a long cotton trade of a couple of
weeks ago which went my way and then quickly deteriorated - I was fortunate to
escape with a small loss attributable due to slippage typical of NY markets. I
feel that trades are always to be found but the really good trades require
patience - see my comments regarding sugar for the kind of setups I
like.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Steve
Karnish</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> ; <A
href="mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx"; title=eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>Earl Adamy</A> ; <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>List</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999 1:45
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: In lieu of crash(trash)
talk</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Earl,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Attached is a graphic representation of my last
five wheat trades and my current open position. Looking at these
positions you can see that in each case, there was a strong market move the
day before my position was taken (circled in beautiful "magenta").
Every trade was proceeded by market movement that was contrary to the position
taken the following day. So I might ask, "Why wouldn't you want a weak
close to trigger a long in wheat"? </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I'm a mechanical swing trader who relies on
momentum oscillators and fibonacci retracements. This year the
mechanical approach (for wheat) has triggered 27 trades (approximately one
trade every seven trading days). It's traded 20 times successfully, and
has posted 6 losses. The "possible 5th wave scenario" and deciding
whether a patterns are "terribly bullish" vs. "somewhat bullish" are
subjective interpretations of subjective technical approaches. Nothing
wrong with most of the technical disciplines...I'm a
student/teacher/cheerleader of many. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>In any event, I no longer ponder the completion
of the fifth wave or whether the stochastic is going trying double back and
produce a "failure swing". I certainly don't care about crop
conditions, exports, carry over, etc. Within each technical discipline
there is lots of room for subjective opinion. Fundamentals were invented
to create a "fog" in the traders mind. Some may feel wonderful about the
daily challenge of applying subjective technical analysis to the markets...I
gave it up a long time ago and sleep better since that time. Some may
feel that fundamentals are important (good luck my little sheep).</FONT><FONT
face=Arial size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>When the market bottoms and the fifth wave is
completed, I hope to be aboard (on the long side) so that
the "Elliot Wavers" will provide upside momentum. As we carry
off the "bottom", I will immediately be targeting my next short
position. Whatever tomorrow brings, I can assure you only one
thing: I will trade the market mechanically. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Earl, please keep us posted to your decisions in
the grain markets. Your astute comments are
always interesting. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><BR>Steve Karnish<BR>Cedar Creek
Trading</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Featuring: "Cybercast"<BR><A
href="http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/";>http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/</A>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
Earl Adamy
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>List</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999 10:27
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: In lieu of crash(trash)
talk</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>I've been monitoring grains for a possible long position.
I'm curious as to why you would want a weak close to trigger long in wheat
and corn? Corn appears to have completed a possible 5th wave decline with
two closes under the 78% retracement which isn't terribly bullish. Of
particular note in corn is what (so far anyway) is a very tight double
inside day setup. Beans have a clearer wave structure however the 5th wave
appears to be incomplete. Meal is interesting looking. Can't make up my mind
about wheat.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A href="mailto:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>Steve
Karnish</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>List</A> ; <A
href="mailto:metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, October 06, 1999
10:22 AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> In lieu of crash(trash)
talk</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>List,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>From time to time, traders actually discuss
"real" trades on this forum (the current sugar debate). This is a
really great "idea" that should be explored on a daily basis. Think
of it: a place where "realtraders" can exchange "real trading"
ideas. It's a concept that could catch on.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>For those who monitor real trades in the
grain market:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>9/29: Went short: corn (214.75), oats
(116.00), & wheat (286.50); (December contracts)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/6: Covered and went long oats
(110.50)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>10/7: A close below 203 in Dec. corn
and 262.25 in Dec. wheat triggers long positions tomorrow.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This has little to do with the crash of '29,
Alan Green"spun", or all those "politicos" conspiring to make my life
miserable in the gold market. But, guess what? Real people are
in these real trades, making real money, not letting the "news" influence
their approach, and they are certainly not sitting around theorizing about
the rise and fall of US economy. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Steve Karnish<BR>Cedar Creek Trading<BR><A
href="http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/";>http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/</A></FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Oct 07 08:11:17 1999
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From: "Steve Karnish" <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "List" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>,
<ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
References: <01BF10A7.9AA4D5E0.ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
Date: Thu, 7 Oct 1999 06:39:40 -0700
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Status:
"But I don't tell the others to stop talking about sugar. On the contrary,
if you want to share your knowledge about
what makes this market tick I am all ears... Maybe I can learn something
there."
Gwen,
Maybe you should learn to read. I'm anything but "angry" and if you read
"carefully" below you will (maybe not) see that I encourage people to talk
about sugar and then make specific recommendations about the grains. Since
you admit that:
"really I have no clues about it", I think your choice to "stay quiet on
this" is an excellent one.
Steve Karnish
CCT
http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/
----- Original Message -----
From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: 'Steve Karnish' <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>; List <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>;
<metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, October 07, 1999 1:37 AM
Subject: AW: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
> Hi Steve, why such anger? Different people different interests! In
addition
> what you do displaying your sugar trades is no different from debating
about
> the direction of rates, currencies, and asset valuations or is it?
>
> I have traded sugar myself and even made money in it, but really I have no
> clues about it, why it should do this or that, I just looked at patterns I
used
> in stocks and hence stay quiet on this. But I don't tell the others to
stop
> talking about sugar. On the contrary, if you want to share your knowledge
about
> what makes this market tick I am all ears... Maybe I can learn something
there.
>
> Gwenn
>
>
> | -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
> | Von: Steve Karnish [SMTP:kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
> | Gesendet am: Wednesday, October 06, 1999 5:23 PM
> | An: List; metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> | Betreff: In lieu of crash(trash) talk
> |
> | List,
> |
> | From time to time, traders actually discuss "real" trades on this forum
(the
> | current sugar debate). This is a really great "idea" that should be
explored
> | on a daily basis. Think of it: a place where "realtraders" can
exchange
> | "real trading" ideas. It's a concept that could catch on.
> |
> | For those who monitor real trades in the grain market:
> |
> | 9/29: Went short: corn (214.75), oats (116.00), & wheat (286.50);
(December
> | contracts)
> |
> | 10/6: Covered and went long oats (110.50)
> |
> | 10/7: A close below 203 in Dec. corn and 262.25 in Dec. wheat triggers
long
> | positions tomorrow.
> |
> | This has little to do with the crash of '29, Alan Green"spun", or all
those
> | "politicos" conspiring to make my life miserable in the gold market.
But,
> | guess what? Real people are in these real trades, making real money,
not
> | letting the "news" influence their approach, and they are certainly not
> | sitting around theorizing about the rise and fall of US economy.
> |
> | Steve Karnish
> | Cedar Creek Trading
> | http://www.stny.rr.com/abbracadabra/cybercast/
> | << Datei: ATT00007.html >>
|