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Wow! So now we know the background, let's get down to business: what's the
scenario to unfold, and what's your trading plan? where are the stops etc...
After all, I don't care the story as it doesn't seem more outlandish to me than
rationalizing current net stock valuations. Go with the trend but beware the
fads. Currently we have a bull in Tech, we have a fad in Net and Tech, like we
had before in Bio and before in conglomerates and before in Radio in the 20s.
Now problem with fads is that they never stop when you expect them to, nor
where you expect them to. Only once they stop, you get the standard 70 to 90%
fall sall, and it typically takes anywhere between 5 and 30 years to recover.
Net won't be any different for sure, but when and from where???
Another fad is the millenium thing. Big emotions and expectations here for
sure. My current belief was that it would be a gentle mess thereafter, nothing
earth shattering but quite funny with most having to replace all sorts of eq
uipment. So you say most equipment has already been ordered?
So how do you trade this thing now?
Curious Gwenn
| -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
| Von: James Taylor [SMTP:jptaylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
| Gesendet am: Thursday, October 07, 1999 5:56 AM
| An: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx
| Betreff: Spinning Financial Illusions - The Story of Bubblenomics
|
| Fraser Management's
| The Contrary Opinion Forum
| (Sept. 29-Oct. 1, 1999)
|
| Spinning Financial Illusions - The Story of Bubblenomics
| Presented by William A. Fleckenstein
|
| <BIG SNIP>
In summary, technology-stock bulls have placed an
| over-trillion-dollar bet that demand will stay strong when it is more
| likely that we will
| encounter not just our now-typical,
| weaker-than-expected second half, but a true collapse in orders. Never
| since the mania leg of this bull
| market began in 1995 have so many factors been aligned
| so perfectly to pull the rug from under the feet of technology investors.
| Nuclear winter
| may just be the catalyst to end the mania. From ???@??? Thu Oct 07 06:49:56 1999
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Date: Thu, 07 Oct 1999 22:08:41 +1000
From: David Bosley <bosley@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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To: Realtraders <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: FUTR - Continuous contract data for seasonal grains
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<x-html><!doctype html public "-//w3c//dtd html 4.0 transitional//en">
<html>
Please can any of the traders experienced in trading grains futures offer
guidance on the most suitable format for continuous data?
<br>
<ol>
<li>
1 For each commodity, is it better to compile one data file where
each front month is shown as its volume & OI rises above the other
months, i.e. a single continuous data file for say wheat which is based
on all wheat contracts offered.</li>
<li>
2. Or is it better to maintain a number of separate files each based on
a specific month, e.g. a single data file for only Dec Wheat.</li>
</ol>
In the case of 2 being the preferred format please can you advise which
are the best months to compile for CBOT Corn, Rice, Soya & Wheat?
<p>Many thanks & greetings from Australia
<p>David Bosley</html>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Oct 07 06:49:58 1999
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From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
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Subject: Linear Regression/Momentum Research
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Just thought I would add that this is the first time I have seen all 3
indexes I follow signal the same direction at the same time.I do not
trust this phenomena but time will tell.
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
Subject: Linear Regression/Momentum Research
Date: 10/06/1999 07:19pm
Here is a review of some new and old signals:
1.S&P went long at 1336.Had been short from 1351 so net 15 points or a
total of 276 since started tracking 3 months ago.
2.Nasdaq went long today.
3.Nyfe went long today.
4.JY continues short from 2 days ago.
5.HO went short today.
6.SF continues long.
7.Cotton continues short.
Need to quantify the others.
John
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