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Tom -
I have gone with a five wave count. The reason is because the night
session, following the 113-09 low saw bonds reach 113-05. Using that,
you do not get that funky three wave structure for wave-A and it becomes
easier to label wave-1 up to 114-07. Then, 50-62% retrace is I
114-04/113-20.
Interesting sidelight though is that I have leaned to the idea that
113-25 ended a three wave drop from the highs. If that is correct, then
you have the following possibilities:
1) 116-08/113-05 was wave-5 or wave-i of wave-5. That would make a-b-c
look more correct here. I do not like any counts using this as wave-5
since it implies very short lived 4th wave compared to other waves in
the drop since last October.
2) Wave-3 ended at 113-05. This fits in with five wave count up from
113-05 which could be wave-A in a zigzag still developing.
3) Wave-3 bottomed at 113-25, and at 115-04 completed a three wave
irregular correction. If drop holds 114-04/113-20, then would lean to
this being x-wave with wave-4 continuing longer as a double three.
Just some further thoughts....
Steve Poser
--
Steven W. Poser, President
Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
http://www.poserglobal.com
Tom Alexander wrote:
>
> Here is another look at how bonds are playing out. Yesterday there was an
> apparent A-B-C, and that is still the best count in my opinion even though
> bonds traded up to the more extreme level for C. However, as is often the
> case, there is an alternate count presenting the possibility of bonds
> having completed a "5" instead of a three wave A-B-C. The implication is a
> pullback and then significantly more rally. I have added the labeling for
> the possible five wave structure on the attached chart. I have also put a
> fib study (I believe it shows as yellow) with the standard retracements. If
> this is a 5 (and I realize it sure isn't a pretty one) , we should have a
> correction into probably at least the 50% retracement level prior to the
> next rally.
>
> Personally, I don't see a high probability trade and with the strong
> possibilty of high volatilty bonds present too much risk at the moment for
> this trader! It's just fun trying to draw the map ahead of time.
>
> Regards,
>
> Tom Alexander
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Name: R_bond.GIF
> R_bond.GIF Type: GIF Image (image/gif)
> Encoding: base64
> Description: R_bond.GIF (GIF File)
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